Global Economic Outlook 2026: New Horizons in Productivity and Growth. This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more
After a year of moderate stagflation, 2026 is expected to be a pretty meh economic year—the predictions of booms or recessions are pretty few
Real potential GDP grows by an average of 2.1 percent per year from 2026 to 2030 and by an average of 1.8 percent per year from 2031 to 2036 in
JP Morgan's now predicting 2026 may start off slow but then improve later in the year.
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
* [*BRC Ratings – S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Current Oil Price Surge To Weigh On Growth](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Baseline Forecast: Temporary Energy Shock, Forecast Conviction Low](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Inflation: Higher Energy Cost On Top Of Already Elevated Core](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). Before the war broke out, we were expecting to increase our growth forecast for this year closer to 2.5% on higher-than-expected growth in the second half of last year, looser financial conditions, lower uncertainty, larger assumptions for household tax refunds and big-tech AI spending, and steady growth in the first two months, as indicated by high frequency weekly economic indicators (see “[U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676)," March 20, 2026). * [U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676), March 20, 2026. * [S&P Global Ratings Raises 2026 Oil Price Assumptions On Longer-Than-Expected Oil Flows Disruption](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101675235), March 16, 2026. * [Economic Research: New U.S. Inflation Risks Emerge While Price Pressures Build For Producers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672683), March 3, 2026.
[Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/). [Trade flows have not fallen off a cliff](https://www.hamiltonproject.org/data/tracking-trade-amid-uncertain-and-changing-tariff-policies/); despite [nontrivial upward price pressure from tariffs](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34496), inflation has not materialized to the degree feared; recession concerns have eased; and the [dollar’s global role](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-tariffs-hurt-the-dollar/) [has proven resilient](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/top-market-takeaways/tmt-in-the-rear-view-how-did-our-2025-themes-pan-out#section-header). The GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, establishes a new regulatory framework for [payment stablecoins](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-stablecoins-and-how-are-they-regulated/), a privately offered digital payment asset recorded on a distributed ledger backed by U.S. currency or similarly liquid assets, that could be used as a substitute for cash or bank transaction accounts. While the GENIUS Act provides more certainty, financial regulators must now write rules that will determine if these [stablecoins can gain trust](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/essential-features-for-a-safe-and-trusted-payment-stablecoin/) and be used for purposes other than trading crypto-assets. At the same time, trade policy remains unsettled, with ongoing tariff actions and a [looming](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tax-policy-by-executive-order-the-unsettled-boundaries-of-ieepa/) Supreme Court case creating additional uncertainty for firms. [Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/).
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].