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R
rsmus.com
article
https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html
In the United States, a modest economic tailwind fueled by expansionary fiscal policies and rate cuts will help push growth to 2.2% in 2026, write RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Economist Tuan Nguyen. * **Australia:** The economy will remain resilient amid global uncertainties, producing steady but modest growth of 2%, writes RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar. For this reason, we are attaching a 25% probability that growth will increase to 2.5% or higher as inflation eases and the Fed pushes its policy rate to 3% more quickly than investors are pricing in. Should productivity improve, those gains would create the conditions for a quicker return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which would provide the ingredients for stronger growth, lower Fed rates and a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. The combination of a loosening labor market, slower pay growth and lower inflation will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December and potentially twice more next year, taking rates to 3.25%.
L
lsa.umich.edu
research
https://lsa.umich.edu/content/dam/econ-assets/Econdocs/RSQE%20PDFs/UM_RSQE_US…
As the Fed proceeds with its cutting cycle amid a cooling labor market, we expect real GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 2.3 percent and the unemployment rate to average 4.2 percent in 2024Q4. As the stimulative effects of the expected tax cuts dominate the drag from the anticipated new tariffs, we project quarterly GDP growth to accelerate modestly during 2026, reaching a 2.5 percent annualized pace by 2026Q4. Although we expect mortgage rates to resume their decline over the next two years, there is substantial uncertainty around their path stemming from large projected deficits, likely increases in tariffs, the resulting pressure on inflation, and potential changes to the mortgage finance system such as the possible reprivatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We project housing affordability to improve gradually over the next two years. With year-over-year core CPI inflation having held stubbornly flat since June, any further acceleration of inflation trends would likely derail the Fed's rate-cutting plans absent a further cooldown in the labor market, sending policy rate expectations and longer-term Treasury yields higher.
S
siepr.stanford.edu
research
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].
B
brookings.edu
research
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/economic-issues-to-watch-in-2026/
[Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/). [Trade flows have not fallen off a cliff](https://www.hamiltonproject.org/data/tracking-trade-amid-uncertain-and-changing-tariff-policies/); despite [nontrivial upward price pressure from tariffs](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34496), inflation has not materialized to the degree feared; recession concerns have eased; and the [dollar’s global role](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-tariffs-hurt-the-dollar/) [has proven resilient](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/top-market-takeaways/tmt-in-the-rear-view-how-did-our-2025-themes-pan-out#section-header). The GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, establishes a new regulatory framework for [payment stablecoins](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-stablecoins-and-how-are-they-regulated/), a privately offered digital payment asset recorded on a distributed ledger backed by U.S. currency or similarly liquid assets, that could be used as a substitute for cash or bank transaction accounts. While the GENIUS Act provides more certainty, financial regulators must now write rules that will determine if these [stablecoins can gain trust](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/essential-features-for-a-safe-and-trusted-payment-stablecoin/) and be used for purposes other than trading crypto-assets. At the same time, trade policy remains unsettled, with ongoing tariff actions and a [looming](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tax-policy-by-executive-order-the-unsettled-boundaries-of-ieepa/) Supreme Court case creating additional uncertainty for firms. [Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/).
A
advisor.morganstanley.com
article
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-wolfslau-group/documents/field/w/wo/wol…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, Treasury Dep't , Morgan Stanley Research forecasts. Business fixed investment Residential investment Trade Inventories Government Consumption Real GDP 2026 US ECONOMICS OUTLOOK 5NOVEMBER 2025. > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts. We expect AI -related spending to contribute about 3pp to growth in total. Note: In left chart, “Macro variables” includes the net effect of changes in GDP growth, inflation, employment, interest rate s o n deficit forecasts. Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, Treasury Dep't , Morgan Stanley Research forecasts. Stanley Research to any third party (including but not limited to related parties, affiliated companies and any other third p art ies) or engage in any activities regarding Morgan Stanley 2026 US ECONOMICS OUTLOOK 39 NOVEMBER 2025.
D
deloitte.com
article
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/u…
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
U
unctad.org
article
https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026
[Skip to main content](https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026#main-content). * [About](https://unctad.org/about). * [Commodities and Development Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A588). * [Digital Economy Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A598). * [Economic Development in Africa Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A390). * [Handbook of Statistics](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A396). * [Least Developed Countries Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A392). * [Review of Maritime Transport](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A393). * [Technology and Innovation Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A644). * [Trade and Development Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A394). * [World Investment Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A397). * [Global Investment Trends Monitor](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A609). * [Global Trade Update](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1572). * [Policy briefs](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A655). * [Rapid assessments](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A412). * [Working papers](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A389). * [Debt Management Conference](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f[0]=product%3A345). * [Ocean Forum](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f[0]=product%3A1848). * [Investment, enterprise and development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A322). * [Trade and development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A319). * [Expert meetings](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A316). * [Competition law and policy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1453). * [Consumer protection law and policy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1454). * [E-commerce and the digital economy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A335). * [Financing for development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A336). * [International standards of accounting and reporting](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1459). [](https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026). * [World Economic Situation and Prospects](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=product%3A658 "World Economic Situation and Prospects"). [Critical minerals](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1076). [Debt servicing](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1106). [Debt sustainability](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1107). [Economic analysis](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1161). [Economic policy](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1169). [Trade analysis](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1380). [SDG 1 No Poverty](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1142). [SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1149). [SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1151). [SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1158).
S
spglobal.com
article
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2…
* [*BRC Ratings – S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Current Oil Price Surge To Weigh On Growth](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Baseline Forecast: Temporary Energy Shock, Forecast Conviction Low](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Inflation: Higher Energy Cost On Top Of Already Elevated Core](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). Before the war broke out, we were expecting to increase our growth forecast for this year closer to 2.5% on higher-than-expected growth in the second half of last year, looser financial conditions, lower uncertainty, larger assumptions for household tax refunds and big-tech AI spending, and steady growth in the first two months, as indicated by high frequency weekly economic indicators (see “[U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676)," March 20, 2026). * [U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676), March 20, 2026. * [S&P Global Ratings Raises 2026 Oil Price Assumptions On Longer-Than-Expected Oil Flows Disruption](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101675235), March 16, 2026. * [Economic Research: New U.S. Inflation Risks Emerge While Price Pressures Build For Producers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672683), March 3, 2026.