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news
O
oecd.org
article
https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/inflation-forecast.html
* [Andorra](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:and). * [Angola](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ago). * [Azerbaijan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:aze). * [Benin](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ben). * [Bhutan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:btn). * [Bolivia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:bol). * [Cameroon](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cmr). * [Chad](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:tcd). * [Comoros](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:com). * [Congo](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cog). * [Guinea](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:gin). * [Honduras](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:hnd). * [Kenya](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ken). * [Kuwait](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:kwt). * [Liberia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:lbr). * [Moldova](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:mda). * [Namibia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:nam). * [Senegal](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sen). * [Serbia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:srb). * [Singapore](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sgp). * [Sudan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sdn). * [Suriname](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sur). * [Andorra](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:and). * [Angola](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ago). * [Azerbaijan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:aze). * [Benin](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ben). * [Bhutan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:btn). * [Bolivia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:bol). * [Cameroon](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cmr). * [Chad](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:tcd). * [Comoros](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:com). * [Congo](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cog). * [Guinea](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:gin). * [Honduras](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:hnd). * [Kenya](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ken). * [Kuwait](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:kwt). * [Liberia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:lbr). * [Kenya](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ken). * [Kuwait](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:kwt). * [Liberia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:lbr). * [Moldova](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:mda). * [Namibia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:nam). * [Senegal](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sen). * [Serbia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:srb). * [Singapore](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sgp). * [Sudan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sdn). * [Suriname](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sur). * [Andorra](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:and). * [Angola](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ago). * [Azerbaijan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:aze). * [Benin](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ben). * [Bhutan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:btn). * [Bolivia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:bol). * [Cameroon](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cmr). * [Chad](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:tcd). * [Comoros](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:com). * [Congo](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cog). * [Guinea](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:gin). * [Honduras](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:hnd). * [Kenya](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ken). * [Kuwait](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:kwt). * [Liberia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:lbr). * [Moldova](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:mda). * [Namibia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:nam). * [Senegal](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sen). * [Serbia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:srb). * [Singapore](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sgp). * [Sudan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sdn). * [Andorra](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:and). * [Cameroon](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cmr). * [Comoros](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:com). * [Congo](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:cog). * [Guinea](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:gin). * [Honduras](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:hnd). * [Kenya](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:ken). * [Kuwait](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:kwt). * [Moldova](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:mda). * [Namibia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:nam). * [Serbia](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:srb). * [Sudan](https://www.oecd.org/en/search.html?orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-countries:sdn).
F
finance.yahoo.com
news
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economist-says-sees-very-094501278.html
Top economist David Rosenberg sees a "very significant" US recession once fiscal stimulus dries up and AI-related capex starts to wane.
E
ers.usda.gov
official
https://www.ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/publications/109010/…
16 United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections to 2033, EIB-272 USDA, Economic Research Service Figure 10 Select middle-income countries, annual Consumer Price Index growth, 2003–2033 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Calendar year Percent change -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 China Russia Ukraine Note: The shaded region represents the projected period. 18 United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections to 2033, EIB-272 USDA, Economic Research Service Figure 12 World and select middle-income countries, annual population growth, 2003–2033 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Calendar year Percent change -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 World China Ukraine Russia Note: The shaded region represents the projected period.
E
economics.td.com
article
https://economics.td.com/state-economic-forecast
Total population growth in Maine and New Hampshire kept pace with the nation owing to strong domestic migration inflows, while Vermont saw domestic migration outflows.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart3.png). Over the past 40 years, New jersey's unemployment rate has only risen to this level during recessions.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart4.png). Job growth in the Upper and Lower South Atlantic is generally firmer than in New England and the Mid Atlantic, underscoring a relative strength in the Carolinas.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart8.png). Year over year job growth has eased also eased as a result, though at around 1.4% it remains one of the better showings in the region.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart9.png). Florida’s domestic inflows have cooled sharply since 2022, contributing to a broader deceleration in the state's population growth.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart10.png). Price growth momentum has improved alongside a slightly better outrun in the national trend.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart11.png). With the main pillar supporting population growth – net international migration – expected to ease further, Florida population growth is projected to slow further this year.](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/sef/2026-mar/chart13.png).
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
D
deloitte.com
article
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/u…
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
C
cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
C
corporate.vanguard.com
article
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-uni…
”The U.S. labor market remains fundamentally resilient, albeit transitioning toward a slower growth phase.”. While these headwinds are likely to weigh modestly on consumption, they are not expected to fundamentally alter the expansionary backdrop created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, particularly as robust AI‑related capital expenditures continue to provide an important offset and remain a central pillar of growth momentum in 2026. We continue to view the labor market as fundamentally resilient, albeit transitioning toward a slower growth phase, and we have thus revised our year‑end 2026 unemployment rate forecast to 4.6% from 4.2%. We have revised our year‑end 2026 core inflation forecast up by 0.2 percentage points, driven by renewed firmness in non‑housing services, incremental tariff pass‑through, and higher energy prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. While we retain our expectation for a single policy rate cut in 2026—consistent with the Federal Reserve’s willingness to look through energy‑driven price shocks—the principal risk has shifted toward a longer period of policy inertia, particularly if labor market cooling remains gradual and inflation progress proves uneven.