The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
Real GDP grows by 2.2% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027. Growth of Real GDP. The growth of economic output, as measured by the nation's GDP
Real GDP grows by 2.2% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027. Growth of Real GDP. The growth of economic output, as measured by the nation's GDP
China, the U.S., and India will drive nearly half of global GDP growth through 2030, according to IMF projections.
China (+$5.7T), the U.S. (+$5.0T), and India (+$2.1T) account for nearly half (49.7%) of total expected nominal GDP added through 2030.
[ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in the Shadow of War April 2026](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in Flux,Prospects Remain Dim October 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts April 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Steady but Slow:Resilience amid Divergence April 2024](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Navigating Global Divergences October 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Rocky Recovery April 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook War Sets Back the Global Recovery April 2022](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2022/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Recovery During a Pandemic October 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Managing Divergent Recoveries April 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook The Great Lockdown April 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020). [ World Economic Outlook Update Still Sluggish Global Growth July 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019). [ World Economic Outlook Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery April 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019). [ World Economic Outlook Challenges to Steady Growth October 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018). [ World Economic Outlook Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change April 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/world-economic-outlook-april-2018). [Analytical Groups](https://data.imf.org/en/Datasets/WEO/Groups-and-Aggregates-April-2026)[Regional Groups](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/region.htm).
The global economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025 despite increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Global growth in 2025 capped a solid five-year recovery from the 2020 recession, but vulnerable emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) continue to lag behind, according to the *Global Economic Prospects* report. Global growth is set to ease to 2.6 percent in 2026 as several supportive factors wane, giving way to a slowdown in demand for traded goods and softer domestic demand in key economies. Global growth has been revised upwards relative to June expectations by 0.4 percentage point in 2025 and 0.2 percentage point in 2026, in part because of stronger-than-expected growth in major economies. Growth in global goods and services trade is expected to slow further this year, from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.2 percent, as the front-loading that supported trade in 2025 fades. In a downside scenario, a sharp decline in equity valuations alongside plunging risk appetite and tighter financial conditions would reduce global growth relative to baseline projections in 2026.
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
* [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfQ126.pdf "Download"). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=8B83D39A6B4EBC00E0A887B69BFC3A0B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BAF74C43800DEA938315AED4FABB927A)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=62DB63F114FD4B5E88E90C0C5059405B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BBB9278C895861E5F22C4317E14570F2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=B90469E37C32DEA295A2388E94D74CA7)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=EE030B6FC20DE2750E9CEEF3DBC59044)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=24FFE5FDE6987565D348F70940929DA2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6DB58EE3B1046332EE1DD40402390CC9)(chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of CPI Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-cpi-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=C789B0C84F67C9B6AE28EBA78E9C5852) (chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of PCE Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-pce-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6B11C6B82734F9A2A8F57E3038B01AB2) (chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=15B64E5CDD946CA589348B09923AF69F)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=5CEECBBE7D32A34A74EEDEB2EDBC43C6)(chart). Return to the [main page for the _Survey of Professional Forecasters_](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). * [](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&source=FRBP&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&title=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://www.threads.net/intent/post?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](mailto:?subject=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters&body=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026). . . .
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