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news
D
daviscapitalsite.com
article
https://daviscapitalsite.com/ai-expectations-underpin-the-economic-outlook-fo…
From surging investment in data centers to shifting labor market dynamics, AI is influencing growth expectations across the U.S. and global economies. Here’s how AI-driven investment, Federal Reserve policy, and global conditions may shape the economic outlook in the year ahead. So far, forecasts for 2026 suggest the new year is being met with a mix of optimism and wariness about how investments in AI could reshape the U.S. and global economies. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the arm of the Federal Reserve responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy, meets eight times per year to review economic data pertaining to inflation, employment, and credit conditions before voting on whether to adjust the benchmark federal funds rate. It’s been reported that just four tech giants — Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — had capital expenditures of $337.8 billion in 2025, primarily to build out AI infrastructure.9 By one estimate, business investment in data centers and related AI infrastructure could contribute as much as 0.5% to U.S. economic growth in 2025 and 2026.10.
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/01/30/nowcasting-economic-…
This paper explores alternatives to address data limitations by integrating machine learning and satellite data to estimate real GDP.
E
elibrary.imf.org
research
https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2026/020/article-A000-en.pdf
This empirical application contributes to the emerging nowcasting field to enhance economic forecasting in economies with significant data gaps.
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goldmansachs.com
article
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-bigge…
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). [Share](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). . . Goldman Sachs Research expects “sturdy” global economic growth in 2026, with some of the world’s biggest economies getting a boost from higher fiscal spending, declining policy rates, and a reduced tariff impact. Overall, [Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research) forecasts global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP to increase 2.9% in 2026—higher than the consensus estimate of 2.7%. Scroll down to see Goldman Sachs Research’s 2026 forecasts for some of the world’s [biggest economies](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). In Japan, Goldman Sachs Research expects steady growth to continue, with 0.6% real GDP growth this year. * [Life at GS](https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/life-at-goldman-sachs "Life at GS Link"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026).
Y
youtube.com
video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYjRilQEb9s
Self-Driving Neural Networks for Yield Curve Modelling | AI & Forecasting Techniques Conference 2026 · Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning
A
authorea.com
article
https://www.authorea.com/users/1002610/articles/1362992/master/file/data/Adva…
Machine learning has gained significant traction in the field of economic forecast- ing due to its ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships in data.
U
upcommons.upc.edu
research
https://upcommons.upc.edu/bitstreams/76b1b241-384e-46ea-8170-e7c575cbb987/dow…
To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we have designed two out-of-sample experiments: a nowcasting exercise in which we recursively generate estimates of GDP at the end of each quarter using the latest survey data available, and an iterative forecasting exercise for different forecast horizons We found that forecasts generated with the sentiment indicators outperform those obtained with time series models. The obtained expressions differ from the confidence indicators constructed by the EC in that: (a) they are based on information coming from all the available variables of each survey, (b) they select expectations with the highest forecasting power and their optimal lag structure, (c) they capture the existing non-linear relationships between survey expectations, and (d) they generate direct estimates of economic growth. This forecasting exercise addresses the question about the information content of business and consumer survey expectations, and whether more sophisticated aggregation schemes based on machine learning could provide composite indicators that can better track economic activity.
F
facebook.com
news
https://www.facebook.com/cnbc/posts/the-federal-reserve-is-forecasting-relati…
The global AI growth bonus could reach 1.4%, amounting to nearly $7 trillion in additional global GDP over ten years. Around two-thirds of jobs