The global economy proved more resilient than expected last year. Trade and financial flows held up better than anticipated, and many
Saving and transforming lives. Addressing hunger, conflict and the climate crisis in countries facing extreme poverty and fragility.
and/or of civic freedoms Extreme weather events Disruptions to critical infrastructure State-based armed conflict Non-weather related natural disasters Intrastate violence Crime and illicit economic activity Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards Infectious diseases Decline in health and well-being Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment INEQUALITY Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Misinformation and disinformation Debt Economic downturn Inflation Pollution Cyber insecurity Asset bubble burst Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Societal polarization Critical change to Earth systems Natural resource shortages Talent and/or labour shortages Online harms Insufficient public infrastructure and social protections Censorship and surveillance Concentration of strategic resources and technologies Geoeconomic confrontation Involuntary migration or displacement Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain Erosion of human rights and/or of civic freedoms Extreme weather events Disruptions to critical infrastructure State-based armed conflict Non-weather related natural disasters Intrastate violence Crime and illicit economic activity Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards Global risks landscape: an interconnections map F I G U R E 6 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026 Edges Relative influence High Low Medium Risk influence Nodes High Low Medium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological.
The diagnosis of the markets is clear: France’s fiscal situation shares more in common with Italy's than with that of Spain or Portugal, and this has already translated into a reordering of Europe’s country-risk, as reflected in the risk premiums and the changes made by the ratings agencies.8, and this is driven by an increase in investment in infrastructure and defence which should kick off in 2026, resulting in a projected jump in public debt of around 15 points between 2024 and 2028 and a structural deficit that is expected to rise to 4% of potential GDP in 2026.") At the limit, the greatest threat is that the mechanisms designed in the past decade to tackle spikes in the risk of fragmentation in Europe (ESM, UNWTO and IPT) could end up being put to the test.
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This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
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Disaster risk management (DRM) plays a critical role in protecting livelihoods and economies from the adverse impacts of disaster and