The U.S. economy, representing 15% of global output, is now forecast to grow by 1.9% (up 0.1 pp from April) in 2025 and 2% (up 0.3 pp from April)
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
* Third, heightened macro risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy could trigger a sudden repricing by financial markets—with much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation—[tightening financial conditions](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-in-the-middle-east-challenges-global-financial-stability) and dampening aggregate demand. Our [reference forecast](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026?cid=bl-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001 "reference forecast"), which assumes a short-lived conflict and a moderate 19 percent increase in energy commodities prices in 2026, still puts global growth at only 3.1 percent this year and headline inflation at 4.4 percent, a sharp deviation from the global disinflation trend in recent years. Moreover, the 2022 surge reflected an unusually steep aggregate supply curve, with strong demand running into [supply bottlenecks](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/10/22/as-inflation-recedes-global-economy-needs-policy-triple-pivot "supply bottlenecks"), allowing central banks to achieve disinflation with limited output losses. [The region can best cope by protecting vulnerable people, letting prices adjust, anchoring inflation expectations, and accelerating structural reforms](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/16/asias-economic-resilience-is-being-tested-by-the-energy-shock). [But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/01/19/global-economy-shakes-off-tariff-shock-amid-tech-driven-boom). * [GLOBAL ECONOMY](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics/Economic%20growth).
British Virgin Islands no data. China, People's Republic of 23.45 thousand. Korea, Republic of 2.1 thousand. Northern Mariana Islands no data. Saint-Pierre and Miquelon no data. Türkiye, Republic of 1.76 thousand. Turks and Caicos Islands no data. United Kingdom 4.67 thousand. United States 34.26 thousand. United States Virgin Islands no data. Wallis and Futuna Islands no data. Africa (Region) 3.75 thousand. Asia and Pacific 48.8 thousand. Australia and New Zealand 2.43 thousand. Central Asia and the Caucasus 2.64 thousand. East Asia 31.94 thousand. Eastern Europe 6.53 thousand. Middle East (Region) 4.39 thousand. North Africa 1.12 thousand. North America 39.28 thousand. South America 5.04 thousand. South Asia 6.71 thousand. Southeast Asia 5.02 thousand. Sub-Saharan Africa (Region) 2.63 thousand. Western Europe 27.33 thousand. Advanced economies 77.81 thousand. ASEAN-5 4.26 thousand. Emerging and Developing Asia 34.13 thousand. Emerging and Developing Europe 7.22 thousand. Emerging market and developing economies 58.22 thousand. Middle East and Central Asia 6.21 thousand. Other advanced economies 11.25 thousand. Sub-Saharan Africa 2.56 thousand.
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[ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in the Shadow of War April 2026](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in Flux,Prospects Remain Dim October 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts April 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Steady but Slow:Resilience amid Divergence April 2024](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Navigating Global Divergences October 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Rocky Recovery April 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook War Sets Back the Global Recovery April 2022](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2022/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Recovery During a Pandemic October 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Managing Divergent Recoveries April 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook The Great Lockdown April 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020). [ World Economic Outlook Update Still Sluggish Global Growth July 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019). [ World Economic Outlook Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery April 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019). [ World Economic Outlook Challenges to Steady Growth October 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018). [ World Economic Outlook Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change April 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/world-economic-outlook-april-2018). [Analytical Groups](https://data.imf.org/en/Datasets/WEO/Groups-and-Aggregates-April-2026)[Regional Groups](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/region.htm).