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I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outl…
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
C
conference-board.org
article
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook
* []( /north-america/ ). ](/signin/forgotpassword.cfm?reflink=https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). * [ X](https://x.com/intent/post?text='GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK'https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [Global Economic Outlook](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [US Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators). + [Global Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators). + [Global Gray Swans Tool](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/geopolitics/global-gray-swans-tool-database). + [Release Calendar](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook#CalendarDiv). * **Global:** [Global Forecast Update](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-forecast-update "Global Forecast Update") (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025); [StraightTalk®](/research/straightTalk) (quarterly publication on the global economy). * **United States:** [Economic Forecast for the US Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/us-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: US View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-US/) and [webcasts](https://www.conference-board.org/webcast/economy-watch/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: US Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-US-edition) (annual, 8 December 2025). * **Europe:** [Economic Forecast for the European Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/eur-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: European View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-europe/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Euro Area Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-Euro-Area-Edition) (annual, 12 December 2025). * **China:** [Economy Watch: China View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-china/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: China Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-China-Edition) (annual, 9 December 2025). * **Emerging Markets**: [Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View reports](/research/economy-watch-emerging-markets) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025). [](/webcast/ondemand/global-economic-outlook-2026 "The Big Picture: What's Ahead for the Global Economy?").
L
lsa.umich.edu
research
https://lsa.umich.edu/content/dam/econ-assets/Econdocs/RSQE%20PDFs/RSQE_US_Fo…
PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, climbs to the 2.8–3.0 percent range year over year in 2025Q3– 26Q3, as tariffs filter through the economy. Since the beginning of April, uncertainty surrounding tariff policy pushed markets to price in four or more cuts in 2025, but market expectations have recently returned to their late-March levels. With buyer hesitation in a slightly looser housing market, home price growth is expected to remain modest in 2025H2, averaging a 3.0 percent annualized pace, before reverting to its 4.0 percent long-run pace by 2027Q1. • PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, rebounds to the 2.8–3.0 percent range year over year in 2025Q3-26Q3 from about 2.5 percent recently, as tariffs filter through the economy. • Strong growth in goods imports fueled by tariff front-loading pushed the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio up to 4.6 percent in 2025Q1, exceeding the recent pandemic-driven peak in 2022Q1.
W
worldbank.org
article
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Inflation in low-income countries](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/021dbb36-16b7-4d2e-bcd5-5c05f2643591/download)[Jan. 2020, SF 2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). What is potential growth?[Jan. 2018, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Productivity and investment growth during reforms[Jan. 2018, Box 3.5](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS[Jan. 2016, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016.pdf). Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Sectoral sources of productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Box 3.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Debt, financial crises, and productivity[Jan. 2020, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future?[Jan. 2015, Box 1.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence[Jan. 2015, Box 1.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies[Jan. 2019, Chapter 4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2019.pdf).
Y
youtube.com
video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLfUrJ7Iebc
What do the IMF's latest forecasts reveal about the trajectory of the global economy? Following the release of the spring 2026 World
G
goldmansachs.com
article
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-bigge…
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). [Share](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). . . Goldman Sachs Research expects “sturdy” global economic growth in 2026, with some of the world’s biggest economies getting a boost from higher fiscal spending, declining policy rates, and a reduced tariff impact. Overall, [Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research) forecasts global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP to increase 2.9% in 2026—higher than the consensus estimate of 2.7%. Scroll down to see Goldman Sachs Research’s 2026 forecasts for some of the world’s [biggest economies](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). In Japan, Goldman Sachs Research expects steady growth to continue, with 0.6% real GDP growth this year. * [Life at GS](https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/life-at-goldman-sachs "Life at GS Link"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026).
D
deloitte.com
article
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/u…
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
M
morganstanley.com
article
https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026
[](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026#mobileNav). * [Morgan Stanley Institute](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/institute). [Morgan Stanley Institute](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/institute). * [Morgan Stanley at Work](https://www.morganstanley.com/atwork). * [Sustainable Investing](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/sustainability-at-morgan-stanley). * [Core Values](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/morgan-stanley-core-values). * [Sustainability](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/sustainability-at-morgan-stanley). * [Morgan Stanley at Work](https://www.morganstanley.com/atwork/employees/login). * [Morgan Stanley Institute](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/institute). [Morgan Stanley Institute](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/institute). * [Morgan Stanley at Work](https://www.morganstanley.com/atwork). * [Sustainable Investing](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/sustainability-at-morgan-stanley). * [Core Values](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/morgan-stanley-core-values). * [Sustainability](https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/sustainability-at-morgan-stanley). . [(opens in a new tab)](https://twitter.com/share?url=https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026&text=2026%20Economic%20Outlook:%20Moderate%20Growth). [(opens in a new tab)](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026&title=2026%20Economic%20Outlook:%20Moderate%20Growth&summary=). [(opens in a new tab)](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026). [(opens in a new tab)](mailto:?body=I%20found%20this%20on%20MorganStanley.com%20and%20thought%20you%20would%20be%20interested%20:%20https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026&subject=I%20found%20this%20on%20MorganStanley.com%20-%202026%20Economic%20Outlook:%20Moderate%20Growth). [](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/stock-market-investment-outlook-2026). research[U.S. Stocks Shine in Spotlight of Favorable Conditions](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/stock-market-investment-outlook-2026)Risk assets are poised for a strong year in a friendly policy and macroeconomic environment, with U.S. stocks outperforming peers. research[Consumer Credit Remains Resilient at the Top](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/consumer-credit-trends-mixed-signals)Despite investors’ concern about vulnerabilities in U.S. consumer credit, the strength of high-income consumers is expected to continue to prop up the broader U.S. economy. [ research U.S. Stocks Shine in Spotlight of Favorable Conditions](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/stock-market-investment-outlook-2026). .