The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents the spring 2026 PIIE Global Economic Prospects, the Institute's semiannual
However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters.
xix AE AGOA AI AIPI CAPB CGFS CPI EAP ECA EM7 EMBI EMDEs EMs EU FCS FDI FM FTSE FY GCC GDP GFC GNI HIPC IDA IEA IMF LAC LIC LNG LP MNA MSCI NRI ODA ODE OECD OPEC+ PMI PPP PVAR R&D RTA SAR Abbreviations advanced economy African Growth and Opportunity Act artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index cyclically adjusted primary balance Committee on the Global Financial System consumer price index East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye Emerging Markets Bond Index emerging market and developing economies emerging markets European Union fragile and conflict-affected situations foreign direct investment frontier markets Financial Times Stock Exchange fiscal year Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product global financial crisis gross national income heavily indebted poor countries International Development Association International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund Latin America and the Caribbean low-income country liquefied natural gas local projection Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Morgan Stanley Capital International non-resource-rich countries official development assistance other developing economies Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated oil producers purchasing managers’ index purchasing power parity panel vector autoregression research and development regional trade agreement South Asia xx SSA TFP UN USMCA VIX WAEMU WDI WTO Sub-Saharan Africa total factor productivity United Nations United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index West African Economic and Monetary Union World Development Indicators World Trade Organization CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL OUTLOOK CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JANUARY 2026 3 The global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 ... Source: OECD (2026), OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026
[Skip to main content](https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026#main-content). * [About](https://unctad.org/about). * [Commodities and Development Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A588). * [Digital Economy Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A598). * [Economic Development in Africa Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A390). * [Handbook of Statistics](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A396). * [Least Developed Countries Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A392). * [Review of Maritime Transport](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A393). * [Technology and Innovation Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A644). * [Trade and Development Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A394). * [World Investment Report](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A397). * [Global Investment Trends Monitor](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A609). * [Global Trade Update](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1572). * [Policy briefs](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A655). * [Rapid assessments](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A412). * [Working papers](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A389). * [Debt Management Conference](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f[0]=product%3A345). * [Ocean Forum](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f[0]=product%3A1848). * [Investment, enterprise and development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A322). * [Trade and development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A319). * [Expert meetings](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A316). * [Competition law and policy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1453). * [Consumer protection law and policy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1454). * [E-commerce and the digital economy](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A335). * [Financing for development](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A336). * [International standards of accounting and reporting](https://unctad.org/meetings-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A1459). [](https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026). * [World Economic Situation and Prospects](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=product%3A658 "World Economic Situation and Prospects"). [Critical minerals](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1076). [Debt servicing](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1106). [Debt sustainability](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1107). [Economic analysis](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1161). [Economic policy](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1169). [Trade analysis](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1380). [SDG 1 No Poverty](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1142). [SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1149). [SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1151). [SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals](https://unctad.org/publications-search?f[0]=thematic%3A1158).
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
Inflation in low-income countries](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/021dbb36-16b7-4d2e-bcd5-5c05f2643591/download)[Jan. 2020, SF 2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). What is potential growth?[Jan. 2018, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Productivity and investment growth during reforms[Jan. 2018, Box 3.5](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS[Jan. 2016, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016.pdf). Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Sectoral sources of productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Box 3.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Debt, financial crises, and productivity[Jan. 2020, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future?[Jan. 2015, Box 1.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence[Jan. 2015, Box 1.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies[Jan. 2019, Chapter 4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2019.pdf).