8 January 2026 - Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 per cent estimated for 2025 and
[Skip to main content](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#main). [About PIIE](https://www.piie.com/about-piie "Learn more about PIIE, an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions."). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Globalization](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/globalization). * [Inequality](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inequality). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Labor](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/labor). * [Regions &Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). [View All](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). Real global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2025 to 3.0 percent in 2026 before picking up to 3.1 percent in 2027 (see figure below), according to analysis presented at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Spring 2026 [Global Economic Prospects](https://www.piie.com/events/2026/global-economic-prospects-spring-2026) event. [](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [PIIE projects continued global economic growth in 2024 amid lingering inflation concerns](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/piie-projects-continued-global-economic-growth-2024-amid-lingering). * [Growth](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/growth). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Regions and Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). [Consent Preferences](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#). [More…](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#addtoany "Show all").
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
In CBO's projections, exports recover and grow by 2.0 percent in 2026 as firms adjust their supply chains and global demand strengthens.
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
Economic Outlook Europe Q2 2026: Global Shock Leaves Recovery Uncertain. Europe's economic recovery has been unsettled by the Middle East conflict, as higher
# Four global risk trends likely to shape the planet through 2030. most consequential risks of the next few years will not come from any single crisis, they will emerge from how these forces interact, reshaping power, eroding trust and fragmenting systemsImage: Shutterstock. * Meanwhile, the world may move into an era of polycurrency, while a global tech-lash likely hinders growth. They will emerge from how these forces interact – reshaping power, eroding trust and fragmenting systems. The World Economic Forum’s *2026 Global Risks Report* frames the current moment as an “age of competition,” marked by geoeconomic confrontation, information disorder and social polarization. From that research, four global risk trends stood out as likely to shape the path to 2030:. The question is whether a more polycentric world will be able to secure global stability. Some countries are selling US dollar holdings to hedge geopolitical risk, while others – including India, the UAE and China – are expanding local-currency trade arrangements.
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