We forecast 2.2% GDP growth for the U.S. in 2026, followed by an average of 1.9% in 2027–2029. The recent oil shock could push headline
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, sustained by robust technology-related
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
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xix AE AGOA AI AIPI CAPB CGFS CPI EAP ECA EM7 EMBI EMDEs EMs EU FCS FDI FM FTSE FY GCC GDP GFC GNI HIPC IDA IEA IMF LAC LIC LNG LP MNA MSCI NRI ODA ODE OECD OPEC+ PMI PPP PVAR R&D RTA SAR Abbreviations advanced economy African Growth and Opportunity Act artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index cyclically adjusted primary balance Committee on the Global Financial System consumer price index East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye Emerging Markets Bond Index emerging market and developing economies emerging markets European Union fragile and conflict-affected situations foreign direct investment frontier markets Financial Times Stock Exchange fiscal year Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product global financial crisis gross national income heavily indebted poor countries International Development Association International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund Latin America and the Caribbean low-income country liquefied natural gas local projection Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Morgan Stanley Capital International non-resource-rich countries official development assistance other developing economies Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated oil producers purchasing managers’ index purchasing power parity panel vector autoregression research and development regional trade agreement South Asia xx SSA TFP UN USMCA VIX WAEMU WDI WTO Sub-Saharan Africa total factor productivity United Nations United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index West African Economic and Monetary Union World Development Indicators World Trade Organization CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL OUTLOOK CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JANUARY 2026 3 The global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
[Skip to main content](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#main). [About PIIE](https://www.piie.com/about-piie "Learn more about PIIE, an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions."). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Globalization](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/globalization). * [Inequality](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inequality). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Labor](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/labor). * [Regions &Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). [View All](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). Real global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2025 to 3.0 percent in 2026 before picking up to 3.1 percent in 2027 (see figure below), according to analysis presented at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Spring 2026 [Global Economic Prospects](https://www.piie.com/events/2026/global-economic-prospects-spring-2026) event. [](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [PIIE projects continued global economic growth in 2024 amid lingering inflation concerns](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/piie-projects-continued-global-economic-growth-2024-amid-lingering). * [Growth](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/growth). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Regions and Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). [Consent Preferences](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#). [More…](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#addtoany "Show all").
What do the IMF's latest forecasts reveal about the trajectory of the global economy? Following the release of the spring 2026 World
* [How the IMF Supports the Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/about/how-the-imf-supports-the-global-economy). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Commodity Prices](https://www.imf.org/en/research/commodity-prices). * [Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/countries). * [A](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#A). * [B](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#B). * [C](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#C). * [E](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#E). * [G](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#G). * [H](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#H). * [I](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#I). * [J](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#J). * [K](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#K). * [M](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#M). * [N](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#N). * [S](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#S). * [T](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#T). * [U](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#U). * [IMF and Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/regions/europe). * [IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT)](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ResRep/CDOT-Region). * [IMF Regional Office for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/resrep/bal-region). * [IMF Regional Office in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/resrep/cam-region). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). * [Country Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/search#cf-type=COUNTRYREPS). Our adverse scenario assumes further disruption, leading to higher energy prices and inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions throughout the year. Actually, 2025 was a relatively strong year; and before the war began, global growth prospects being resilient and non‑oil commodity prices being strong and external financial conditions being supportive actually helped a lot of countries in the region. * [Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries).