China, the U.S., and India will drive nearly half of global GDP growth through 2030, according to IMF projections.
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
. . * [Assumptions and Conventions](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/assumandconv.pdf). * [Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf). * [Foreword](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf). * [IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execboard.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [Download Table](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2026/april/english/weo-april-2026-projections-table.jpg). . [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Read Chapter 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx). * [Online Annex](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Read Chapter 2](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [Online Annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Read Chapter 3](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [online annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf). ###### [Statistical Appendix:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). [Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix A:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). [Key Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix B:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [Supplemental Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [](/en/publications/weo). [](/en/publications/gfsr). [](/en/publications/fm). [](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO).
Nominal GDP from 2026 to 2035 and inflation from 2026 to 2029 are now expected to be higher than previously projected. The forecast of short-
Ranked: The Countries Adding the Most to Global GDP (2026–2030) ... global growth drivers from 2025 to 2030, according to economic projections.
Inflation in low-income countries](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/021dbb36-16b7-4d2e-bcd5-5c05f2643591/download)[Jan. 2020, SF 2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). What is potential growth?[Jan. 2018, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Productivity and investment growth during reforms[Jan. 2018, Box 3.5](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS[Jan. 2016, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016.pdf). Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Sectoral sources of productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Box 3.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Debt, financial crises, and productivity[Jan. 2020, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future?[Jan. 2015, Box 1.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence[Jan. 2015, Box 1.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies[Jan. 2019, Chapter 4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2019.pdf).
* []( /north-america/ ). ](/signin/forgotpassword.cfm?reflink=https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). * [ X](https://x.com/intent/post?text='GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK'https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [Global Economic Outlook](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [US Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators). + [Global Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators). + [Global Gray Swans Tool](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/geopolitics/global-gray-swans-tool-database). + [Release Calendar](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook#CalendarDiv). * **Global:** [Global Forecast Update](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-forecast-update "Global Forecast Update") (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025); [StraightTalk®](/research/straightTalk) (quarterly publication on the global economy). * **United States:** [Economic Forecast for the US Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/us-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: US View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-US/) and [webcasts](https://www.conference-board.org/webcast/economy-watch/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: US Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-US-edition) (annual, 8 December 2025). * **Europe:** [Economic Forecast for the European Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/eur-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: European View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-europe/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Euro Area Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-Euro-Area-Edition) (annual, 12 December 2025). * **China:** [Economy Watch: China View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-china/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: China Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-China-Edition) (annual, 9 December 2025). * **Emerging Markets**: [Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View reports](/research/economy-watch-emerging-markets) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025). [](/webcast/ondemand/global-economic-outlook-2026 "The Big Picture: What's Ahead for the Global Economy?").
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.