IMF CUTS 2026 GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.1% - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5odNPedDQk
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the global economy — cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 3.1 percent,
IMF cuts growth outlook, warns world already drifting toward more ...
https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-cuts-growth-outlook-warns-potential-glob…
[Skip to main content](https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-cuts-growth-outlook-warns-potential-global-recession-if-iran-war-worsens-2026-04-14/#main-content). * [World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). ## [Browse World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). * [Iran War](https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/). * [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). ## [Browse Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Energy](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/). * [Take Five](https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/). * [Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). ## [Browse Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). * [U.S. Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/). With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathered for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented [three growth scenarios](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/imfs-middle-east-war-scenarios-global-growth-weaker-worse-really-bad-2026-04-14/): weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds. Sign up [here.](https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/business/?location=article-paragraph&redirectUrl=%2Fbusiness%2Fimf-cuts-growth-outlook-warns-potential-global-recession-if-iran-war-worsens-2026-04-14%2F). Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to [hike rates](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-expects-pace-japans-interest-rate-hikes-speed-up-slightly-2026-04-14/) at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago. Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a [bigger hit](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-cuts-emerging-economies-growth-estimate-war-darkens-outlook-2026-04-14/) from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%. ## [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Home](https://www.reuters.com/). * [Home](https://www.reuters.com/). * [World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). * [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). * [](https://www.facebook.com/Reuters). * [](https://www.instagram.com/Reuters).
IMF downgrades global growth outlook as Iran war hits prices
https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade…
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [pushed back against](https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade-expected-iran-war-hits-prices-2026-04-14/?arena_mid=B4mbIvZXZgpPHGWlsVHh) warnings from the IMF and the World Bank, [adding](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bessent-says-confident-that-core-inflation-is-going-down-fed-will-need-cut-rates-2026-04-14/) that the U.S. would cycle through higher prices very quickly. But the world may be already drifting towards its "[adverse scenario](https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade-expected-iran-war-hits-prices-2026-04-14/?arena_mid=eYbKo8jWiiK6ZIK7gCox)" forecast of 2.5% global growth in 2026, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a press conference in Washington, D.C. Gourinchas said the 3.1% forecast assumes that the Iran war is resolved quickly and that energy prices normalize in the second half of 2026, but acknowledged that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. "The current hostilities in the Middle East pose immediate policy trade-offs: between fighting inflation and preserving growth and between supporting those affected by the rising cost of living and rebuilding fiscal buffers," the IMF said in its [World Economic Outlook](https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade-expected-iran-war-hits-prices-2026-04-14/). [As we covered earlier](https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade-expected-iran-war-hits-prices-2026-04-14/?arena_mid=CiHdkjt3sehmfDRGKYaL), Britain suffered the sharpest cut to economic growth forecasts of any Group of Seven economy in the IMF's latest report.
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outl…
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
[PDF] Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies; April 14, 2026
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
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War Darkens Global Economic Outlook and Reshapes Policy Priorities
https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-…
* Third, heightened macro risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy could trigger a sudden repricing by financial markets—with much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation—[tightening financial conditions](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-in-the-middle-east-challenges-global-financial-stability) and dampening aggregate demand. Our [reference forecast](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026?cid=bl-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001 "reference forecast"), which assumes a short-lived conflict and a moderate 19 percent increase in energy commodities prices in 2026, still puts global growth at only 3.1 percent this year and headline inflation at 4.4 percent, a sharp deviation from the global disinflation trend in recent years. Moreover, the 2022 surge reflected an unusually steep aggregate supply curve, with strong demand running into [supply bottlenecks](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/10/22/as-inflation-recedes-global-economy-needs-policy-triple-pivot "supply bottlenecks"), allowing central banks to achieve disinflation with limited output losses. [The region can best cope by protecting vulnerable people, letting prices adjust, anchoring inflation expectations, and accelerating structural reforms](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/16/asias-economic-resilience-is-being-tested-by-the-energy-shock). [But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/01/19/global-economy-shakes-off-tariff-shock-amid-tech-driven-boom). * [GLOBAL ECONOMY](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/topics/Economic%20growth).