IMF CUTS 2026 GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.1% - YouTube
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the global economy ... IMF CUTS 2026 GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.1%; WARNS OF
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the global economy ... IMF CUTS 2026 GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.1%; WARNS OF
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
At $100 oil under the adverse case, they're forecasting 2.5% global growth. The BOJ comment about a steeper rate path is notable — if Japan is tightening into global uncertainty, that has implications for the yen carry trade and risk appetite more broadly. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. investingLive is not an investment advisor, investingLive provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an "as-is" basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not purport to present the entire relevant or available public information with respect to a specific market or security.
[Skip to main content](https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-cuts-growth-outlook-warns-potential-global-recession-if-iran-war-worsens-2026-04-14/#main-content). * [World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). ## [Browse World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). * [Iran War](https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/). * [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). ## [Browse Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Energy](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/). * [Take Five](https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/). * [Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). ## [Browse Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). * [U.S. Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/). With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathered for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented [three growth scenarios](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/imfs-middle-east-war-scenarios-global-growth-weaker-worse-really-bad-2026-04-14/): weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds. Sign up [here.](https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/business/?location=article-paragraph&redirectUrl=%2Fbusiness%2Fimf-cuts-growth-outlook-warns-potential-global-recession-if-iran-war-worsens-2026-04-14%2F). Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to [hike rates](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-expects-pace-japans-interest-rate-hikes-speed-up-slightly-2026-04-14/) at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago. Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a [bigger hit](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-cuts-emerging-economies-growth-estimate-war-darkens-outlook-2026-04-14/) from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%. ## [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Home](https://www.reuters.com/). * [Home](https://www.reuters.com/). * [World](https://www.reuters.com/world/). * [Business](https://www.reuters.com/business/). * [Markets](https://www.reuters.com/markets/). * [](https://www.facebook.com/Reuters). * [](https://www.instagram.com/Reuters).
. . * [Assumptions and Conventions](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/assumandconv.pdf). * [Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf). * [Foreword](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf). * [IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execboard.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [Download Table](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2026/april/english/weo-april-2026-projections-table.jpg). . [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Read Chapter 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx). * [Online Annex](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Read Chapter 2](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [Online Annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Read Chapter 3](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [online annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf). ###### [Statistical Appendix:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). [Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix A:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). [Key Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix B:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [Supplemental Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [](/en/publications/weo). [](/en/publications/gfsr). [](/en/publications/fm). [](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO).
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
[ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in the Shadow of War April 2026](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Global Economy in Flux,Prospects Remain Dim October 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts April 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Steady but Slow:Resilience amid Divergence April 2024](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Navigating Global Divergences October 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook A Rocky Recovery April 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook War Sets Back the Global Recovery April 2022](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2022/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Recovery During a Pandemic October 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/October/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook Managing Divergent Recoveries April 2021](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/text.ashx). [ World Economic Outlook The Great Lockdown April 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020). [ World Economic Outlook Update Still Sluggish Global Growth July 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019). [ World Economic Outlook Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery April 2019](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019). [ World Economic Outlook Challenges to Steady Growth October 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018). [ World Economic Outlook Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change April 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/world-economic-outlook-april-2018). [Analytical Groups](https://data.imf.org/en/Datasets/WEO/Groups-and-Aggregates-April-2026)[Regional Groups](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/region.htm).
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).