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news
W
wto.org
article
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gtos0326_e.pdf
• The volume of world merchandise trade grew 4.6% in 2025, well above our October forecast of 2.4%, as surging demand for AI-related goods − related to the global investment boom in the sector − offset the negative impacts of higher tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty. In 2025, for the second year in a row, Asian economies were the largest contributors to total world trade volume growth (as measured by the sum of exports and imports), accounting for 3.2 percentage points out of 4.6, or 71% of the total increase. In addition to an AI-related investment boom, trade in 2025 was supported by resilient demand in emerging markets, by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in advanced economies, and, in the first half of the year, by the frontloading of imports in North America ahead of the expected imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs by the United States. In the first half of 2025, Asian economies contributed 1.8 percentage points to global merchandise trade growth through AI-enabling goods, while North America added 0.6 percentage points and Europe 0.2 percentage points.
U
unctad.org
news
https://unctad.org/news/10-trends-shaping-global-trade-2026
10 trends shaping global trade in 2026 | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Slower growth, rising protectionism and structural shifts in value chains, services and regulation are redefining trade flows, creating new risks and opportunities. Geopolitical tensions, shifting supply chains, accelerating digital and green transitions and tighter national regulations are reshaping trade flows and global value chains. The January [**Global Trade Update**](https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcinf2025d11_en.pdf) highlights **ten trends shaping global trade in 2026** – and the policies and actions needed to help countries navigate change and seize emerging opportunities. Closing the digital divide – through infrastructure, skills and supportive regulation – will be critical if developing countries are to benefit from the fastest-growing segment of global trade. South–South trade surges as developing countries drive export growth. South–South trade **– trade between developing countries –** has become a major engine of global trade growth. UN Trade and Development will continue to track these shifts and support countries in navigating change, managing risks and identifying opportunities in an increasingly fragmented trade environment.
E
eiu.com
article
https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/trade-outlook-2026/
[Skip to content](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/trade-outlook-2026/#main-content). * [Who we help](https://www.eiu.com/n/who-we-help/). * [Corporates Assessing business risks and opportunities for multinationals](https://www.eiu.com/n/who-we-help/corporates/). * [Solutions](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/). * [EIU Viewpoint We monitor the world to prepare you for what’s ahead](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/). * [Country Analysis Understand a country’s political, policy and economic outlook](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/country-analysis/). * [Financial Risk Identify financial risks posed by political and economic developments](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/financial-risk/). * [Operational Risk Identify, assess, compare and mitigate the operational risks involved in doing business](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/operational-risk/). * [Browse all solutions Explore all our products and services](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/). * [Insights](https://www.eiu.com/n/content/the-eiu-update/). * [Contact](https://www.eiu.com/n/contact-us/). * [Search](https://www.eiu.com/n/?s). * [Home](https://www.eiu.com/n/). [Download free summary](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/trade-outlook-2026/#mktoForm_anchor). **US protectionist policy:** assessing the impact of “Liberation Day” tariffs and the 2026 US midterms on global growth. **Regional trade shifts:**navigating the critical USMCA review and Asia’s pivot toward new trade frameworks. **The AI and tech boom:** evaluating how artificial intelligence and critical minerals are sustaining global trade flows. [Find out more](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/country-analysis/). . [Find out more](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/operational-risk/). [Find out more](https://www.eiu.com/n/solutions/viewpoint/financial-risk/). * [Manage Cookies](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/trade-outlook-2026/#privacy-manager).
Y
youtube.com
video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awJm1GgkSRI
World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products.
L
linkedin.com
article
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2026-trade-outlook-herculean-effort-meagan-mar…
This annual report takes a closer look at the 2026 trade outlook. Global trade flows remained remarkably resilient in 2025, despite the first
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outl…
. . * [Assumptions and Conventions](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/assumandconv.pdf). * [Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf). * [Foreword](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf). * [IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execboard.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [Download Table](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2026/april/english/weo-april-2026-projections-table.jpg). . [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Read Chapter 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx). * [Online Annex](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Read Chapter 2](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [Online Annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Read Chapter 3](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [online annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf). ###### [Statistical Appendix:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). [Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix A:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). [Key Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix B:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [Supplemental Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [](/en/publications/weo). [](/en/publications/gfsr). [](/en/publications/fm). [](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO).
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
O
oecd.org
article
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2026/03/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-re…
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, sustained by robust technology-related