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F
fedcommunities.org
article
https://fedcommunities.org/event/2026-economic-outlook/
# 2026 Economic Outlook. Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for its annual economic outlook Fed Talk webinar. Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, will analyze incoming economic indicators and walk through the US economic outlook for 2026. The session will offer valuable insights for professionals, academics, business leaders, and others interested in economic trends and policy. Various economic indicators critical for understanding the health and direction of the economy will be covered:. * **Consumer Spending:** Data related to the health of the US consumer, whose spending powers most of the overall economy. The Fed Talk program is the Cleveland Fed’s speaker series illuminating an array of issues related to the economy. Attendees can enhance their understanding of economic issues and trends. * **Ed Knotek**, senior vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. * **Julianne Dunn**, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Cincinnati Branch. ### Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. ## Related Events.
S
spglobal.com
research
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/1…
1. The US economy is not en route to a recession, with growth to be supported by a few key tailwinds. · 2. Domestic demand prospects in Western
S
siepr.stanford.edu
research
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].
C
corporate.vanguard.com
article
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-uni…
”The U.S. labor market remains fundamentally resilient, albeit transitioning toward a slower growth phase.”. While these headwinds are likely to weigh modestly on consumption, they are not expected to fundamentally alter the expansionary backdrop created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, particularly as robust AI‑related capital expenditures continue to provide an important offset and remain a central pillar of growth momentum in 2026. We continue to view the labor market as fundamentally resilient, albeit transitioning toward a slower growth phase, and we have thus revised our year‑end 2026 unemployment rate forecast to 4.6% from 4.2%. We have revised our year‑end 2026 core inflation forecast up by 0.2 percentage points, driven by renewed firmness in non‑housing services, incremental tariff pass‑through, and higher energy prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. While we retain our expectation for a single policy rate cut in 2026—consistent with the Federal Reserve’s willingness to look through energy‑driven price shocks—the principal risk has shifted toward a longer period of policy inertia, particularly if labor market cooling remains gradual and inflation progress proves uneven.
M
mercer.com
article
https://www.mercer.com/insights/investments/market-outlook-and-trends/economi…
* [Global - English](https://www.mercer.com/?site=global). [Australia - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-au/). [Belgium - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-be/). [Canada - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-ca/). [Finland - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-fi/). [India - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-in/). [Ireland - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-ie/). [Jordan - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-jo/). [Malaysia - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-my/). [New Zealand - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-nz/). [Oman - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-om/). [Philippines - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-ph/). [Singapore - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-sg/). [Switzerland - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-ch/). [United States - English](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/). [Investment trends](https://www.mercer.com/insights/investments/market-outlook-and-trends/). * . * . * . The US Federal Reserve is likely to continue easing, with markets pricing rates just below 3% by year-end, though cuts may slow if growth firms or inflation remains above target[[3]](#references). [](#download). * [Investment trends](https://www.mercer.com/insights/investments/market-outlook-and-trends/ "Investment trends"). * [### Implementation and OCIO](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/investment-solutions-and-ocio/). [Link to OCIO page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/investment-solutions-and-ocio/). * [### Sustainable investing](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/sustainable-investment/). [Link to sustainable investment page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/sustainable-investment/). * [### Alternative investments](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/alternatives/). [Link to alternatives and private markets page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/alternatives/). * [### Strategic research](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercerinsight-community/). [Link to strategic research page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercerinsight-community/). * [### Asset manager research](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercerinsight/). [Link to asset manager research page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercerinsight/). * [### Managing investment risk](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercer-sentinel/). [Link to Mercer Sentinel page](https://www.mercer.com/solutions/investments/mercer-sentinel/).
G
goldmansachs.com
article
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks#). . . [ The Global Economy Is Forecast to Post ‘Sturdy’ Growth of 2.8% in 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-economy-forecast-to-post-sturdy-growth-in-2026). [ German Economic Outlook: 1.1% Growth in 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/german-economic-outlook-growth-in-2026). [ Investment Banking 2026 Global M&A Outlook](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/investment-banking/insights/articles/2026-ma-outlook). [ Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 Episode 1: The Big Picture](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/goldman-sachs-exchanges-outlook-2026-episode-1-the-big-picture). [ Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 Episode 2: Regional Perspectives](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/goldman-sachs-exchanges-outlook-2026-episode-2-regional-perspectives). [ Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 Episode 3: Assets and Allocation](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/goldman-sachs-exchanges-outlook-2026-episode-3-assets-and-allocation). [ Will US Stocks Outperform in 2026?](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/will-us-stocks-outperform-in-2026). [Read Report](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/macro-outlook-2026-sturdy-growth-stagnant-jobs-stable-prices "Read Report"). [Read Report](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/markets-outlook-2026-some-like-it-hot "Read Report"). [Read Report](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/equity-outlook-2026-tech-tonic-a-broadening-bull-market "Read Report"). [Read Report](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/commodity-outlook-2026-ride-the-power-race-and-supply-waves "Read Report"). [Read More](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/uk-outlook-2026-catching-down "Read More"). [Read More](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/euro-area-outlook-2026-cyclical-boost-structural-drag-unchanged-rates "Read More"). [Read More](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/japan-economic-outlook-2026-steady-fundamentals-policy-risks-ahead "Read More"). [Read More](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/global-fx-outlook-2026-different-dollar-downside "Read More"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks).
C
cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
A
am.jpmorgan.com
article
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/m…
In addition, as I noted in an article last month entitled *“Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy”*, the collective impact of structural changes such as increasing inequality, the rise of defined contribution retirement plans and embedded capital gains are pushing money into the stock market while deterring investors from cashing out. Not only is this very likely to cut estimated job growth in the year that ended in March 2025, but it will likely reduce job growth thereafter, an issue which we address when projecting monthly job gains for 2026 and 2027. We assume that this will reduce the effective tariff rate on goods from 11.0% entering 2026 to 7.5% by the end of the year, lowering inflation and boosting economic growth but also contributing to a deteriorating fiscal situation. However, we expect that lower tariff rates and fading fiscal stimulus in late 2026 cause CPI inflation to fall to 2.2% year-over year by the fourth quarter and to hover close to that level into 2027, allowing the Fed to finally achieve its 2% consumption deflator objective.