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P
philadelphiafed.org
research
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-…
* [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfQ126.pdf "Download"). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=8B83D39A6B4EBC00E0A887B69BFC3A0B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BAF74C43800DEA938315AED4FABB927A)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=62DB63F114FD4B5E88E90C0C5059405B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BBB9278C895861E5F22C4317E14570F2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=B90469E37C32DEA295A2388E94D74CA7)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=EE030B6FC20DE2750E9CEEF3DBC59044)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=24FFE5FDE6987565D348F70940929DA2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6DB58EE3B1046332EE1DD40402390CC9)(chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of CPI Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-cpi-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=C789B0C84F67C9B6AE28EBA78E9C5852) (chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of PCE Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-pce-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6B11C6B82734F9A2A8F57E3038B01AB2) (chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=15B64E5CDD946CA589348B09923AF69F)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=5CEECBBE7D32A34A74EEDEB2EDBC43C6)(chart). Return to the [main page for the _Survey of Professional Forecasters_](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). * [](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&source=FRBP&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&title=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://www.threads.net/intent/post?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](mailto:?subject=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters&body=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026). . . .
S
spglobal.com
article
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2…
* [*BRC Ratings – S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Current Oil Price Surge To Weigh On Growth](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Baseline Forecast: Temporary Energy Shock, Forecast Conviction Low](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Inflation: Higher Energy Cost On Top Of Already Elevated Core](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). Before the war broke out, we were expecting to increase our growth forecast for this year closer to 2.5% on higher-than-expected growth in the second half of last year, looser financial conditions, lower uncertainty, larger assumptions for household tax refunds and big-tech AI spending, and steady growth in the first two months, as indicated by high frequency weekly economic indicators (see “[U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676)," March 20, 2026). * [U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676), March 20, 2026. * [S&P Global Ratings Raises 2026 Oil Price Assumptions On Longer-Than-Expected Oil Flows Disruption](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101675235), March 16, 2026. * [Economic Research: New U.S. Inflation Risks Emerge While Price Pressures Build For Producers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672683), March 3, 2026.
M
morganstanley.com
article
https://www.morganstanley.com/Themes/outlooks
### [2026 Global Outlook: A Strong Year for Risk Assets](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). **Seth Carpenter:** Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). ### [2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter). **Seth Carpenter:** We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter).
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worldbank.org
article
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Inflation in low-income countries](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/021dbb36-16b7-4d2e-bcd5-5c05f2643591/download)[Jan. 2020, SF 2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). What is potential growth?[Jan. 2018, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Productivity and investment growth during reforms[Jan. 2018, Box 3.5](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS[Jan. 2016, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016.pdf). Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Sectoral sources of productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Box 3.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Debt, financial crises, and productivity[Jan. 2020, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future?[Jan. 2015, Box 1.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence[Jan. 2015, Box 1.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies[Jan. 2019, Chapter 4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2019.pdf).
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siepr.stanford.edu
research
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outl…
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
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cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
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weforum.org
article
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/02/four-risk-trends-shaping-the-planet/
# Four global risk trends likely to shape the planet through 2030. most consequential risks of the next few years will not come from any single crisis, they will emerge from how these forces interact, reshaping power, eroding trust and fragmenting systemsImage: Shutterstock. * Meanwhile, the world may move into an era of polycurrency, while a global tech-lash likely hinders growth. They will emerge from how these forces interact – reshaping power, eroding trust and fragmenting systems. The World Economic Forum’s *2026 Global Risks Report* frames the current moment as an “age of competition,” marked by geoeconomic confrontation, information disorder and social polarization. From that research, four global risk trends stood out as likely to shape the path to 2030:. The question is whether a more polycentric world will be able to secure global stability. Some countries are selling US dollar holdings to hedge geopolitical risk, while others – including India, the UAE and China – are expanding local-currency trade arrangements.