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A
assets.kpmg.com
article
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmgsites/cn/pdf/en/2025/12/2026-outlook-…
Specifically, the following ten macro trends are worth watching in 2026: 01 02 03 04 05 China’s economic rebalancing will gather pace as supply – demand gap narrows 06 07 08 09 10 New infrastructure buildout will gain pace, with private capital playing a larger role Macro policy is expected to stay proactive, with domestic demand and innovation as twin priorities Real estate sector to stabilise with support from government purchases Consumption will shift further toward services-led spending Trade resilience will continue as two-way cross-border investment evolves Manufacturing investment will rebound as industrial upgrading accelerates. Figure 6 Chinese CEOs expecting to see returns on AI investments within three years, % Source: KPMG 2025 Global CEO Outlook 13 © 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership, KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland, KPMG, a Macau SAR partnership, and KPMG, a Hong Kong SAR partnership, are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee.
W
wealthformula.com
article
https://www.wealthformula.com/blog/macro-trends-to-watch-positioning-your-por…
Key mega-trends shaping 2030 include advancements in technology, demographic shifts, climate change, geopolitical instability, and shifts in global economic
R
robeco.com
article
https://www.robeco.com/en-int/themes/expected-returns-2026-2030
# The Stale Renaissance. #### 5-year Expected Returns. ## Video: 5-year Expected Returns 2026-2030. This video isn't available to you because you have not accepted our advertising cookies yet. ## This year’s publication includes. * The expected returns for all major asset classes for 2026-2030. * Three macro scenarios for our base, bull and bear cases. ### Leave your details and download Expected Returns here (134 pages). ### Flexible Allocation D EUR. Sustainable Diversified Allocation D EUR. Sustainable Dynamic Allocation D EUR. Sustainable Income Allocation D EUR. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Annualized (for periods longer than one year). Performances are net of fees and based on transaction prices. > The Stale Renaissance is a world where technological breakthrough meets macroeconomic headwinds; where progress keeps momentum despite macro headwinds Peter van der Welle. ## Executive Summary & Long-Term Returns. Download this year’s Executive Summary. For an outlook on the long-term steady-state returns, read our Long-Term Expected Returns. Download Long-Term Expected Returns.
N
nylim.com
article
https://www.nylim.com/assets/documents/perspectives/gms-macro-pulse-nov-2025.pdf
Macro Pulse Outlook for 2026: charting the year ahead NO V EM BE R 2 02 5 Demonstrating the depth and breadth of the New York Life Investments platform Seasoned bottom-up expertise Multi-boutique structure Objective, top-down analysis Global Market Strategy at New York Life Investments Lauren Goodwin, CFA Chief Market Strategist Julia Hermann, CFA Global Market Strategist Michael LoGalbo, CFA Global Market Strategist AFFILIATED BOUTIQUES UNAFFILIATED SUB-ADVISORS Sarah Hirsch Global Market Strategist 3 • Economic growth • Fed policy and financial conditions • Key economic indicators 4 Table of contents • Global economic cycle • Developed markets • China and emerging markets • Commodities • U.S. Dollar • Executive summary • High conviction investment ideas • Top investment convictions • Long-term rates • U.S. debt sustainability • Geopolitical risk • Megatrends Long-term themes 1 Top convictions 3 International economic & market outlook 2 U.S. economic & market outlook • Investment grade • High yield • Bank loans • Convertibles • Municipal bonds 8 • Alternatives through the cycle • Infrastructure • Commodities • Liquid real estate • Earnings • Valuation • Style • Size • International equities • Capital markets backdrop • Allocation trends • Key takeaways per asset class • A global case for the lower middle market Private markets 5 Equity 7 Alternatives 6 Fixed income Readers can click on any title or subtitle to jump to that section.
I
icgam.com
article
https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-susta…
[Menu](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Subscribe](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Search](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/). * [](mailto:?subject=2026%20Macro%20and%20Private%20Markets%20Outlook%3A%20Sustained%20Resilience&body=While%20economic%20growth%20across%20most%20major%20economies%20will%20likely%20face%20headwinds%20from%20continued%20high%20geopolitical%20and%20US%20policy%20uncertainty%20in%202026%2C%20we%20think%20the%20economic%20resilience%20of%20last%20year%20will%20continue%20this%20year%20and%20provide%20a%20continued%20stable%20operating%20environment%20for%20private%20companies%20in%202026.%20Key%20risks%20are%20potential%20disorderly%20moves%20in%20government%20bond%20markets%20and%20further%20US%20dollar%20weakness.%20Nick%20Brooks%2C%20ICG%27s%20Chief%20Economist%2C%20assesses%20the%20outlook%20for%20the%20year%20ahead.%0D%0A%20%0D%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.icgam.com%2F2026%2F01%2F23%2F2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience%2F). . . As we highlighted in our [trade war analyses](https://www.icgam.com/2025/07/30/trade-war-update-us-eu-trade-deal-reduces-policy-uncertainty-and-downside-growth-risks/) last year, for most countries in Europe and the UK goods exports to the US are relatively small as a percent of GDP. . On their most recent data this risk appears low ([see chart above](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#bis)). . * Follow us on [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/icg-plc/) or sign up to our email [newsletter](https://www.icgam.com/contact/#subscriptions) to receive notification of future macro and private markets research. [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Cookies](https://www.icgam.com/who-we-are/leadership-governance/policies-disclosures/cookies/). * [Privacy](https://www.icgam.com/who-we-are/leadership-governance/policies-disclosures/privacy/). [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). . . [](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/). [Close](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Who we are](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [What we do](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Sustainability](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [People](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [News & insights](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Shareholders & Debtholders](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Subscribe](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#). * [Search](https://www.icgam.com/2026/01/23/2026-macro-and-private-markets-outlook-sustained-resilience/#).
D
deloitte.com
article
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/u…
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
C
cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
M
morganstanley.com
article
https://www.morganstanley.com/Themes/outlooks
### [2026 Global Outlook: A Strong Year for Risk Assets](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). **Seth Carpenter:** Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). ### [2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter). **Seth Carpenter:** We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter).