The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Nominal GDP from 2026 to 2035 and inflation from 2026 to 2029 are now expected to be higher than previously projected. The forecast of short-
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036.
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outl…
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
Global Economic Outlook - The Conference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook
* []( /north-america/ ). ](/signin/forgotpassword.cfm?reflink=https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). * [ X](https://x.com/intent/post?text='GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK'https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [Global Economic Outlook](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook). + [US Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators). + [Global Leading Indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators). + [Global Gray Swans Tool](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/geopolitics/global-gray-swans-tool-database). + [Release Calendar](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook#CalendarDiv). * **Global:** [Global Forecast Update](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-forecast-update "Global Forecast Update") (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025); [StraightTalk®](/research/straightTalk) (quarterly publication on the global economy). * **United States:** [Economic Forecast for the US Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/us-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: US View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-US/) and [webcasts](https://www.conference-board.org/webcast/economy-watch/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: US Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-US-edition) (annual, 8 December 2025). * **Europe:** [Economic Forecast for the European Economy](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/eur-forecast) (monthly); [Economy Watch: European View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-europe/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Euro Area Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-Euro-Area-Edition) (annual, 12 December 2025). * **China:** [Economy Watch: China View reports](https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-china/) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: China Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Global-Economic-Outlook-2026-China-Edition) (annual, 9 December 2025). * **Emerging Markets**: [Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View reports](/research/economy-watch-emerging-markets) (monthly); [Global Economic Outlook 2026: Global Edition](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/global-economic-outlook-2026-new-horizons-in-productivity-and-growth) (annual, 8 December 2025). [](/webcast/ondemand/global-economic-outlook-2026 "The Big Picture: What's Ahead for the Global Economy?").
Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2026: Curb Your Enthusiasm - S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2…
* [*BRC Ratings – S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Current Oil Price Surge To Weigh On Growth](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Baseline Forecast: Temporary Energy Shock, Forecast Conviction Low](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). [Inflation: Higher Energy Cost On Top Of Already Elevated Core](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). Before the war broke out, we were expecting to increase our growth forecast for this year closer to 2.5% on higher-than-expected growth in the second half of last year, looser financial conditions, lower uncertainty, larger assumptions for household tax refunds and big-tech AI spending, and steady growth in the first two months, as indicated by high frequency weekly economic indicators (see “[U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676)," March 20, 2026). * [U.S. Real-Time Data: Energy-Related Inflation Risks Rise Against Steady Growth Momentum](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672676), March 20, 2026. * [S&P Global Ratings Raises 2026 Oil Price Assumptions On Longer-Than-Expected Oil Flows Disruption](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101675235), March 16, 2026. * [Economic Research: New U.S. Inflation Risks Emerge While Price Pressures Build For Producers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101672683), March 3, 2026.
First Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-…
* [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfQ126.pdf "Download"). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=8B83D39A6B4EBC00E0A887B69BFC3A0B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BAF74C43800DEA938315AED4FABB927A)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=62DB63F114FD4B5E88E90C0C5059405B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BBB9278C895861E5F22C4317E14570F2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=B90469E37C32DEA295A2388E94D74CA7)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=EE030B6FC20DE2750E9CEEF3DBC59044)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=24FFE5FDE6987565D348F70940929DA2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6DB58EE3B1046332EE1DD40402390CC9)(chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of CPI Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-cpi-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=C789B0C84F67C9B6AE28EBA78E9C5852) (chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of PCE Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-pce-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6B11C6B82734F9A2A8F57E3038B01AB2) (chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=15B64E5CDD946CA589348B09923AF69F)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=5CEECBBE7D32A34A74EEDEB2EDBC43C6)(chart). Return to the [main page for the _Survey of Professional Forecasters_](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). * [](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&source=FRBP&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&title=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://www.threads.net/intent/post?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](mailto:?subject=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters&body=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026). . . .
World Economic Outlook - All Issues - International Monetary Fund
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
The U.S. economy in 2026: What to watch for
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].