Domestically, we anticipate continued proactive macro policies, with a greater emphasis on technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, new
Welcome to the latest issue of ***This Week in Macroeconomics***, your essential analysis of key economic trends and the forces behind them. As we start the new year, our editor, Phyllis Papadavid, presents five crucial themes for 2026 that will shape economic growth and resilience in low- and middle-income economies in the year ahead. In the latest issue of "This Week in Macroeconomics", Phyllis Papadavid and Dirk Willem te Velde confront a pivotal question at the nexus of geopolitics, finance and development: as global finance fragments, what implications does this structural shift hold for capital flows and development in emerging markets, especially Africa? In the latest "This Week in Macroeconomics", Phyllis Papadavid examines a pivotal question: what ripple effects will a potentially new US Federal Reserve easing cycle have on Africa’s economies, and can they strategically leverage this shift? In the latest issue of "This Week in Macroeconomics", we delve into a potentially transformative trend across the African continent: the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
The recent AI-enthralled market narrative rhymes with the US exceptionalism euphoria that characterized markets in late 2024; correspondingly, we hold minimal directional positions and maintain a relatively contrarian portfolio focused on the more attractive risk-return opportunities available in relative-value, cross-country positions. The rising politicization of central bank balance sheets combined with a diffuse range of stated goals and objectives makes us think that asset holdings, sales, and potential purchases are likely to remain important for markets in 2026.3 The Q3 collapse in US commercial bank reserves that triggered the end of QT2 has a set of complex drivers that are likely to remain persistent headaches for the Fed. A more accommodative balance sheet policy combined with more hawkish actions and speeches by non-US central bankers have motivated a shift in our bond shorts into European, Australian, and Canadian sovereign markets.
Sébastien BARBÉ 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 EMFX vs USD Sources: Bloomberg, Crédit Agricole CIB A NERVE-WRACKING CONTEXT, SOME UNPRECEDENTED RESISTANCE ARIO Ι ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS Crédit Agricole 35 Macro-economic Scenario 2025-2026 – June 2025 Economic & financial forecasts Economic forecasts Interest rates Exchange rates Commodities Public accounts ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS A NERVE-WRACKING CONTEXT, SOME UNPRECEDENTED RESISTANCE ARIO Ι ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS Crédit Agricole 36 Macro-economic Scenario 2025-2026 – June 2025 ECONOMIC FORECASTS 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 United States 2.8 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 -3.9 -3.6 -3.5 Japan 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.4 2.7 1.3 4.7 2.5 2.0 Eurozone 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.9 Germany -0.2 0.1 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 5.7 5.2 5.0 France 1.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 0.9 1.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 Italy 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.7 Spain 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.6 Netherlands 1.0 1.4 1.4 3.2 2.4 2.0 9.9 10.4 10.5 Belgium 1.0 1.1 1.3 4.3 2.9 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 Other advanced United Kingdom 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 3.2 2.2 -2.7 -2.9 -3.3 Canada 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 Australia 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 Switzerland 1.3 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 5.1 4.6 7.2 Sweden 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.8 1.1 2.0 7.4 6.8 6.6 Norway 0.6
[___](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/global-economic-outlook-march-2026#). * [Global Trade & Supply Chains](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics/global-trade-supply-chains). * [S&P Global Market Intelligence](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en). [Business Development & Prospecting](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/panjiva-supply-chain-intelligence)[Demand & Strategic Planning](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/supply-chain-console)[Global Trade Data & Analytics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/maritime-global-trade-analytics-suite)[International Logistics News & Analysis (opens in a new tab)](https://www.joc.com/)[Maritime Intelligence](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/maritime-intelligence)[Sourcing & Procurement](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/global-pricing-purchasing-service)[Supplier Risk](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/supplier-risk)[Third Party Risk Management](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/third-party-risk)[Global Risk & Economics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/global-risk-and-economics). [Business Development & Prospecting](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/panjiva-supply-chain-intelligence)[Demand & Strategic Planning](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/supply-chain-console)[Global Trade Data & Analytics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/maritime-global-trade-analytics-suite)[International Logistics News & Analysis (opens in a new tab)](https://www.joc.com/)[Maritime Intelligence](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/maritime-intelligence)[Sourcing & Procurement](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/global-pricing-purchasing-service)[Supplier Risk](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/supplier-risk)[Third Party Risk Management](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/third-party-risk)[Global Risk & Economics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/global-risk-and-economics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [ #### Commodities Intelligence for Capital Markets & Financial Institutions](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/expanded-commodities-intelligence)[ ###[...]025_path-to-net-zero-7?$responsive$) #### Supply Chain & Trade Data](https://www.marketplace.spglobal.com/en/datasets?filters=%7B%22vendor%22%3A%5B%22S%26P%20Global%20Market%20Intelligence%22%5D%2C%22category%22%3A%5B%22Supply%20Chain%20%26%20Trade%22%5D%7D)[ #### Economic, Credit & Risk](https://www.marketplace.spglobal.com/en/datasets?filters=%7B%22vendor%22%3A%5B%22S%26P%20Global%20Market%20Intelligence%22%5D%2C%22category%22%3A%5B%22Credit%20%26%20Risk%22%2C%22Economic%20Indicators%22%2C%22Regulatory%22%5D%7D)[ #### Sustainability Datasets](https://www.marketplace.spglobal.com/en/datasets?filters=%7B%22vendor%22%3A%5B%22S%26P%20Global%20Market%20Intelligence%22%2C%22S%26P%20Global%20Sustainable1%22%5D%2C%22category%22%3A%5B%22Sustainability%22%5D%7D). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [View All Topics](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics). [Global Trade & Supply Chains](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/topics/global-trade-supply-chains). [S&P Global Market Intelligence](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en). [](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/global-economic-outlook-march-2026). * /[Research](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research)/Global Economic Outlook: March 2026. [Click Here (opens in a new tab)](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/resources/trade-supply-chains-maritime-economic-forecasting-follow-up-request). [Listen Now](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/the-decisive).
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
These new realities impose themselves while an already complex set of factors is requiring attention across all economies: the nexus between national and economic security; structural rigidities that are impeding productivity growth; demographics and immigration; energy security and climate change; affordability; and the trade-off between consumption today and investment for tomorrow. At the same time, because of distinct policy and market factors globally and in Canada, governments and the private sector have to align on strategies for key industries and technologies. All of these priorities will be well served by sound market fundamentals, but they also require policy leadership from governments and strong engagement from the private sector to position Canada advantageously in global competition. Federal Budget 2025 posed the right diagnostic for Canada’s economy, and it signals a welcome shift of policy in favour of public and private investment to overcome the country’s structural challenges.
### [2026 Global Outlook: A Strong Year for Risk Assets](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). **Seth Carpenter:** Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-2026-cross-asset-perspective-seth-carpenter-serena-tang). ### [2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter). **Seth Carpenter:** We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. [Explore Episode](/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/global-economic-outlook-part-1-serena-tang-seth-carpenter).