1. Job growth will remain tepid across US regions. · 2. Federal government job losses are expected to stabilize in 2026. · 3. Population growth
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• The 2026 Index, which considers economic policy developments and conditions in 184 sovereign countries over the past year, reveals a world economy that remains “mostly unfree.” Although the global average economic freedom score has bounced back from 58.6 in 2024 (the lowest since 2010), it has increased by only 0.2 point to 59.9 over the past year from the 59.7 recorded in the 2025 Index. Given this posi tive relationship, governments should be cautious in undertaking shortsighted INCREASING ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Chart 4 A heritage.org NOTES: Figures are country averages for which both Index scores and data on GDP growth are available over the same time period.
Left alone, the U.S. economy is poised for above-average growth, likely in the 2.3% to 2.5% range. Some forecasters are looking at momentum from
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* [Business Leaders Outlook](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook). [Start reading](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#executive-summary). 3. [Challenges & opportunities](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#challenges-and-opportunities "scroll down to challenges and opportunities section"). * [Summary](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#executive-summary). * [Outlook](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#economic-outlook-and-expectations). * [Challenges](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#challenges-and-opportunities). * [Innovation Economy](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#innovation-economy). * [About](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#about-the-survey). ## Economic outlook for 2026[1](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#footnote-1 "go to footnote 1"). The annual Business Leaders Outlook survey, alongside historical data from the [midyear 2025 Pulse](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-midyear-business-leaders-outlook "Leaders focus on strategy plans as economic uncertainty rises") survey in June and prior reports, shows that sentiment has fluctuated meaningfully over the past year. cited labor or tariffs as a top challenge[2](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#footnote-2 "footnote 2"). ### Rankings of most cited challenges by respondent type[2](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook#footnote-2 "go to footnote 2"). ### [Leaders focus on strategy plans as economic uncertainty rises](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-midyear-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-midyear-business-leaders-outlook). ### [Economic confidence snaps into focus](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/business-leaders-outlook-innovation-economy-around-the-world). ### [2024 Australia Business Leaders Outlook: Cautiously optimistic for the year ahead](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/australia-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/australia-business-leaders-outlook). ### [2024 India Business Leaders Outlook: Confidence is strong, but recession concerns remain](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/india-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/india-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/uk-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/france-business-leaders-outlook). [Read more](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/germany-business-leaders-outlook).
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
Explore the global GDP ranking for 2026 with a visual breakdown of the largest economies, top growth regions, and what it means for