Key opportunities (2025–2050) · Productivity and welfare gains from AI, automation, biotech, and clean energy · Demographic dividends in young,
India will become a new regional power in Asia. Over the past decade alone it has already become the world's fifth-largest economy, and is
## 🔮 What will shape the next 25 years for markets and investors? In June last year we wrote about the ***‘Turbulent Transition To Greener Energy’*** , The TL;DR was that the odds of reaching net zero by 2050 weren't looking good. Analysts at RBC expect the shift from a US-led, rules-based global order to a power-based, multipolar order *t* ***o be one of the defining themes of the next 25 years*** *.*. Economists expect returns over the next 10 years to be a lot more modest than the 15 odd percent of the last 10 years. JP Morgan is making *similar forecasts for returns to 2035* : 7% for global equities, 6.7% for US large caps, and 6.4% for a 60/40 stock and bond portfolio. Whether those projections turn out to be correct or not, it’s likely that the returns for individual companies will vary a lot. Passive investing has worked very well over the last 15 years.
Of course, much of the excitement around Chinese tech—and the confidence in its AI development—was driven this past year by the January 2025 release of the [DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/deepseek-poses-a-manhattan-project-sized-challenge-for-trump/). For China and the BRICS group of countries in particular, these cross-border payments platforms could also lend a hand in their de-dollarization strategies: new rails for trade, energy payments, and remittances that do not have to run through dollar-based correspondent banking. From Trump’s proposal to send two-thousand-dollar [checks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/stimulus-check-trump-tariffs-2000.html) to US citizens (thanks to tariff revenue) to Germany’s aim to ramp up defense spending, major economies across the G20 have big plans for additional stimulus in 2026. And on China, while the chart above shows International Monetary Fund and other official estimates for China’s GDP growth, some economists, including ones from Rhodium Group, [argue](https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chinas-Economy-Rightsizing-2025-Looking-Ahead-to-2026.pdf) that China’s real GDP growth could be as low as 2.5 percent for 2026, which would push China below the line displayed.
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). [Share](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). . . Goldman Sachs Research expects “sturdy” global economic growth in 2026, with some of the world’s biggest economies getting a boost from higher fiscal spending, declining policy rates, and a reduced tariff impact. Overall, [Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research) forecasts global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP to increase 2.9% in 2026—higher than the consensus estimate of 2.7%. Scroll down to see Goldman Sachs Research’s 2026 forecasts for some of the world’s [biggest economies](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). In Japan, Goldman Sachs Research expects steady growth to continue, with 0.6% real GDP growth this year. * [Life at GS](https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/life-at-goldman-sachs "Life at GS Link"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026).
In a baseline economic and fiscal scenario, trend real GDP growth for the OECD + G20 area declines from around 3% post-COVID to 1½ per cent in 2060, mainly due
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].
The world will look different in 2050: Climate change will progress, many workforces will shrink as populations age, and emerging technologies will change the