The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Real GDP grows by 2.2% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027. Growth of Real GDP. The growth of economic output, as measured by the nation's GDP,
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2026/03/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-re…
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, sustained by robust technology-related
Economic outlook for 2026, focusing on the United States, the UK ...
https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html
In the United States, a modest economic tailwind fueled by expansionary fiscal policies and rate cuts will help push growth to 2.2% in 2026, write RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Economist Tuan Nguyen. * **Australia:** The economy will remain resilient amid global uncertainties, producing steady but modest growth of 2%, writes RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar. For this reason, we are attaching a 25% probability that growth will increase to 2.5% or higher as inflation eases and the Fed pushes its policy rate to 3% more quickly than investors are pricing in. Should productivity improve, those gains would create the conditions for a quicker return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which would provide the ingredients for stronger growth, lower Fed rates and a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. The combination of a loosening labor market, slower pay growth and lower inflation will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December and potentially twice more next year, taking rates to 3.25%.
Forecasts for the World's Biggest Economies in 2026
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-bigge…
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). [Share](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). . . Goldman Sachs Research expects “sturdy” global economic growth in 2026, with some of the world’s biggest economies getting a boost from higher fiscal spending, declining policy rates, and a reduced tariff impact. Overall, [Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research) forecasts global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP to increase 2.9% in 2026—higher than the consensus estimate of 2.7%. Scroll down to see Goldman Sachs Research’s 2026 forecasts for some of the world’s [biggest economies](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). In Japan, Goldman Sachs Research expects steady growth to continue, with 0.6% real GDP growth this year. * [Life at GS](https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/life-at-goldman-sachs "Life at GS Link"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026).
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outl…
# World Economic Outlook Update. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. #### Resilient growth as technology and adaptability offset trade policy headwinds. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Projections Table. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. ###### World Economic Outlook Update, October 2025: Three Essential Questions. ###### Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 2025. ###### World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Key Facts. Regional Economic Outlook Reports, All Regions.
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of ...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1MD
# FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median (GDPC1MD). U.S. Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median [GDPC1MD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1MD, . **FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint**. **Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint**. **Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median**. **FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low**. **FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median**. Federal Open Market Committee Federal Open Markets Committee Projection Median Real St. Louis Fed Gross Domestic Product Rate Annual Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted.
First Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-…
* [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfQ126.pdf "Download"). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=8B83D39A6B4EBC00E0A887B69BFC3A0B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BAF74C43800DEA938315AED4FABB927A)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=62DB63F114FD4B5E88E90C0C5059405B)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=BBB9278C895861E5F22C4317E14570F2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=B90469E37C32DEA295A2388E94D74CA7)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=EE030B6FC20DE2750E9CEEF3DBC59044)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2028](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2028.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=24FFE5FDE6987565D348F70940929DA2)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Unemployment Rate in 2029](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_unemployment-rate-2029.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6DB58EE3B1046332EE1DD40402390CC9)(chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of CPI Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-cpi-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=C789B0C84F67C9B6AE28EBA78E9C5852) (chart). * [Projections for the 10-Year Annual-Average Rate of PCE Inflation](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_10-year-pce-inflation.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=6B11C6B82734F9A2A8F57E3038B01AB2) (chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=15B64E5CDD946CA589348B09923AF69F)(chart). * [Mean Probabilities for Core PCE Inflation in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_core-pce-inflation-2027.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=5CEECBBE7D32A34A74EEDEB2EDBC43C6)(chart). Return to the [main page for the _Survey of Professional Forecasters_](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). * [](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&source=FRBP&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&title=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](https://www.threads.net/intent/post?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026&text=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters). * [](mailto:?subject=First+Quarter+2026+Survey+of+Professional+Forecasters&body=https%3a%2f%2fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2fsurveys-and-data%2freal-time-data-research%2fspf-q1-2026). . . .
A Baseline Forecast for 2026 - J.P. Morgan Asset Management
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/m…
In addition, as I noted in an article last month entitled *“Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy”*, the collective impact of structural changes such as increasing inequality, the rise of defined contribution retirement plans and embedded capital gains are pushing money into the stock market while deterring investors from cashing out. Not only is this very likely to cut estimated job growth in the year that ended in March 2025, but it will likely reduce job growth thereafter, an issue which we address when projecting monthly job gains for 2026 and 2027. We assume that this will reduce the effective tariff rate on goods from 11.0% entering 2026 to 7.5% by the end of the year, lowering inflation and boosting economic growth but also contributing to a deteriorating fiscal situation. However, we expect that lower tariff rates and fading fiscal stimulus in late 2026 cause CPI inflation to fall to 2.2% year-over year by the fourth quarter and to hover close to that level into 2027, allowing the Fed to finally achieve its 2% consumption deflator objective.