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brianlenahan.substack.com
article
https://brianlenahan.substack.com/p/quantum-computing-timelines-2025
# Quantum's Business. # Quantum Computing Timelines 2025. ### Predictions from Around the Globe. There continues to be no consensus as to ‘when quantum computing’ by current day forecasters. So I thought it would be interesting to share the range of various sources who have written or spoken about the subject recently to help those making their own plans for quantum computing. *Image source: Brian Lenahan/Midjourney*. 2025 is poised to be a transformative year for quantum computing, with breakthroughs in logical qubits, error correction, and early commercial applications. While fault-tolerant, large-scale systems are likely a few years away (2027–2030), advancements in hardware, quantum-AI integration, and PQC are setting the stage for significant impact. Predictions vary, with optimistic timelines (2–5 years for practical use) contrasted by more conservative estimates (15+ years), reflecting the field’s rapid but uncertain progress. ## Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Brian Lenahan. © 2026 Brian Lenahan · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice.
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ntt-research.com
research
https://ntt-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Forecasting-timelines-of-…
Within the (generally optimistic) assumptions of our model, including the key assumption that exponential progress in qubit count and gate fidelity will continue, we estimate that that proof-of-concept fault-tolerant computation based on superconductor technology is unlikely (<5% confidence) to be exhibited before 2026, and that quantum devices capable of factoring RSA-2048 are unlikely (<5% confidence) to exist before 2039. In previous sections we have identified the key met-rics that indicate progress (physical qubits and gate er-ror rate), constructed an index that combines the two (the generalized logical qubit, abbreviated as GLQ) and casted the milestones we are interested in terms of our in-dex (1 GLQ for the proof-of-concept error correction and 4100 GLQs for a quantum Shor attack on RSA 2048). 8. Extrapolated progress of physical qubits (upper plot) and average two-qubit gate error rate (lower plot), from n = 39 data points corresponding to superconducting quantum computers developed between 2007 to 2020. We then compiled a quantitative database of achieve-ments in quantum computing research in the last two decades, focusing especially on two metrics: the highest physical qubit count and lowest average two-qubit gate error rates.
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thequantuminsider.com
article
https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at…
As of May 23, 2025, major players like IBM, Google, Microsoft, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave, IonQ, Quantinuum, Intel, Pasqal and Amazon are shaping the future with detailed roadmaps and predictions from their experts, CEOs, and former CEOs. This report, based on information from the companies and The Quantum Insider’s Intelligence Platform, delves into their strategies, timelines, and the broader implications, drawing from recent announcements and industry insights. While companies like IBM and Google have demonstrated quantum processors with hundreds of qubits, building large-scale machines with millions of interconnected, error-corrected qubits is still far from reality. The roadmaps of major quantum computing companies reflect a dynamic field, with timelines from 2025 to 2030 for significant milestones. ### **How many qubits are needed for practical quantum computing?**. Companies like D-Wave demonstrate practical value with 4,400+ qubits in quantum annealing systems today. Most quantum computing technologies (superconducting qubits, trapped ions) require temperatures near absolute zero (0.015 Kelvin or -273.135°C) to minimize thermal noise that causes qubit decoherence. ### **Are these quantum computing roadmaps realistic?**.
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youtube.com
video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTrwwQIpcKU
IBM's Silent Victory: The Quantum Advantage Everyone Is Missing. Click Future · 8.1K ; The Skynet Moment: How Mythos AI Just Changed Cybersecurity
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introtoquantum.org
article
https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/
The whole computation would take about eight hours.[2](https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/#fn:26) Such estimates require several assumptions on what a future quantum computer would look like. The most serious recent claim about NISQ utility comes from the IBM team in a paper titled ‘Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault-tolerance,’[9](https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/#fn:33) in which a quantum simulation of a specific physical system was performed using 127 noisy qubits. In 2024, with only a year to go and no publicly presented product progression, PsiQuantum shifted its 1 million qubit road map to 2027.[18](https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/#fn:42) IBM took an even more conservative step, and it’s now claiming that it will have just 100,000 qubits in 2033[19](https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/#fn:43) (although this machine should meet the error correction capabilities that we assumed in the previous sections). . . [https://fortune.com/2020/09/15/ibm-quantum-computer-1-million-qubits-by-2030/](https://fortune.com/2020/09/15/ibm-quantum-computer-1-million-qubits-by-2030/).[↩](https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/#fnref:38).
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reddit.com
article
https://www.reddit.com/r/QuantumComputing/comments/1hbossr/understanding_quan…
The first real applications of quantum computers will likely all be in chemistry and material science.
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ibm.com
article
https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/2030/
# IBM Quantum Roadmap. The future of computing is quantum-centric. # Quantum Roadmap. All information being released represents IBM’s current intent, is subject to change or withdrawal, and represents only goals and objectives. Deliver quantum-centric supercomputers with 1,000’s of logical qubits. Beyond 2033, quantum-centric supercomputers will include thousands of qubits capable. of running 1 billion gates, unlocking the full power of quantum computing. Quantum computers running algorithms using thousands of logical qubits are expected to enable general applications in security, chemistry, machine learning, and optimization. Efficient logical decoding will enable 2,000 qubits working. in a distributed 100,000-qubit machine. The middleware will include distributed software tools to manage noise-free quantum computations working seamlessly with classical computations. Qiskit will include general purpose quantum computing libraries to simplify the work of developers. How these advancements will be delivered to IBM clients and partners. Our 100,000-qubit Blue Jay system will define 2,000 qubits capable of running a total of 1 billion gates. The middleware will integrate this system into ever more powerful quantum-centric supercomputers.
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blog.google
article
https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography…
[Skip to main content](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/#jump-content). [Share](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/). * [Gemini app](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/gemini-app/). * [NotebookLM](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/notebooklm/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/infrastructure-and-cloud/). [See all AI updates](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/). * [Gemini app](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/gemini-app/). * [NotebookLM](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/notebooklm/). [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/ "See all Products articles"). [See all AI updates](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/platforms/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/devices/). * [Safety & security](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/). * [Health](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/health/). * [Safety & security](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/). * [Health](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/health/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/). * [Gemini app](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/gemini-app/). * [NotebookLM](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/notebooklm/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/). * [See all](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/infrastructure-and-cloud/). [See all AI updates](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/platforms/). * [See all](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/devices/). * [Safety & security](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/). * [Health](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/health/). 2. [Innovation & AI](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/). 3. [Technology](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/). 4. [Safety & Security](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/). [Share](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). [ Heather Adkins VP, Security Engineering](https://blog.google/authors/heather-adkins/). [Share](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). This new timeline reflects migration needs for the PQC era in light of progress on quantum computing [hardware development](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/), [quantum error correction](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y), and [quantum factoring resource estimates](https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html). * [Safety & Security](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/). * [Google Research](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/). [ Google Research #### Building superconducting and neutral atom quantum computers By Hartmut Neven Mar 24, 2026](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/neutral-atom-quantum-computers/).