Top 10 Economic Insights for 2026 · 1. The US economy is not en route to a recession, with growth to be supported by a few key tailwinds. · 2.
# Lesser Known Economic Indicators Investors Should Track in 2026. 16 Mar 2026by Donald Hayden0. However, tracking **lesser known economic indicators** can help investors spot trends and risks that may not yet be visible in headline reports. ## **What Are Economic Indicators?**. Economic indicators are data points that reflect the overall health and direction of the economy. Rising stress levels may indicate potential market instability, while low stress often signals calmer financial environments. ## **National Economic Activity Index**. Values above zero typically suggest economic expansion, while negative readings may indicate slowing activity or contraction. Higher utilization may point to growing demand, while lower levels can signal economic slowdown. An inverted yield curve has historically been associated with economic slowdowns. Tracking **lesser known economic indicators** can provide investors with valuable insights beyond traditional economic data. By monitoring financial stress, economic activity indexes, industrial output, and yield curve trends, investors can develop a more informed view of market conditions and economic direction in 2026. #### by Donald Hayden.
Of course, much of the excitement around Chinese tech—and the confidence in its AI development—was driven this past year by the January 2025 release of the [DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/deepseek-poses-a-manhattan-project-sized-challenge-for-trump/). For China and the BRICS group of countries in particular, these cross-border payments platforms could also lend a hand in their de-dollarization strategies: new rails for trade, energy payments, and remittances that do not have to run through dollar-based correspondent banking. From Trump’s proposal to send two-thousand-dollar [checks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/stimulus-check-trump-tariffs-2000.html) to US citizens (thanks to tariff revenue) to Germany’s aim to ramp up defense spending, major economies across the G20 have big plans for additional stimulus in 2026. And on China, while the chart above shows International Monetary Fund and other official estimates for China’s GDP growth, some economists, including ones from Rhodium Group, [argue](https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chinas-Economy-Rightsizing-2025-Looking-Ahead-to-2026.pdf) that China’s real GDP growth could be as low as 2.5 percent for 2026, which would push China below the line displayed.
National Economic Indicators April 13, 2026 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table : Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 4 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 5 Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 6 Households Retail Sales Apr-01-2026 08:30 Feb-2026 7 Consumer Spending and Income Apr-09-2026 08:32 Feb-2026 8 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks Apr-10-2026 13:58 Mar-2026 9 Personal Saving Rate Apr-09-2026 08:32 Feb-2026 10 Household Net Worth Mar-19-2026 12:04 Q4-2025 11 Existing Single-Family Home Sales Apr-13-2026 10:00 Mar-2026 12 New Single-Family Home Sales Mar-19-2026 10:00 Jan-2026 13 Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Mar-12-2026 08:30 Jan-2026 14 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Mar-12-2026 08:30 Jan-2026 15 Business Investment Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 16 Real Private Construction Put in Place Mar-23-2026 10:01 Jan-2026 17 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 18 Real Investment in Equipment Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 19 Real Investment in Intellectual Property Apr-09-2026 08:32 Q4-2025 20 Trade Balance of International Trade Mar-24-2026 08:31 Feb-2026 21 Exchange Value of the USD Mar-31-2026 09:09 Mar-2026 22 Manufacturing Industrial Production Mar-16-2026 09:15 Feb-2026 23 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing Mar-16-2026 09:15 Feb-2026 24 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Apr-01-2026 10:03 Mar-2026 25 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity Apr-06-2026 10:02 Mar-2026 26 Table : ISM Business Survey Indexes Apr-01-2026 10:03 Mar-2026 27 Manufacturers' New Orders Apr-10-2026 10:02 Feb-2026 28 Core Capital Goods Apr-10-2026 10:02 Feb-2026 29 Business Inventory/Sales Ratios Apr-01-2026 10:00 Jan-2026 30 (continued) Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page Nonfarm Payroll Employment Apr-03-2026 08:30 Mar-2026 31,32 Unemployment Rate Measures Apr-03-2026 08:30 Mar-2026 33,34 Non-Employment Index Apr-09-2026 15:13 Mar-2026 35 Labor Market Flows Mar-31-2026 10:00 Feb-2026 36 Labor Force Participation Apr-03-2026 08:30 Mar-2026 37 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index Apr-03-2026 08:30 Mar-2026 38 Average Hourly Earnings Apr-03-2026 08:30 Mar-2026 39 Employment Cost Index Feb-10-2026 08:31 Q4-2025 40 Business Labor Productivity Mar-24-2026 08:31 Q4-2025 41 Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business
Most members clearly weighted the risks to the labor market more heavily than those of inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though he did so while chanting the mantra that “there is no risk-free path for policy.” [[1](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#1)]. Taken together, this research finds little indication that AI has impacted aggregate U.S. labor market conditions so far.[[8](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#8)] Although unemployment has increased, it has risen most among workers in occupations with the least AI exposure, suggesting that other factors are at play. As two of us (Bernstein and Cummings) have written,[[11](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#11)] there are certainly bubbly features: Valuations of AI-exposed firms have risen sharply even as revenue from AI-specific products and services remains limited. For example, Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs estimates[[12](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#12)] that generative AI could create $8 trillion of value for U.S. firms through labor productivity gains. Analysis suggests that higher wholesale power costs, investment to replace aging grid infrastructure, extreme weather events, state policies such as net-metered solar and renewable energy standards, and rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles have all contributed to higher prices.[[14](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/us-economy-2026-what-watch#14)].
In the United States, a modest economic tailwind fueled by expansionary fiscal policies and rate cuts will help push growth to 2.2% in 2026, write RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Economist Tuan Nguyen. * **Australia:** The economy will remain resilient amid global uncertainties, producing steady but modest growth of 2%, writes RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar. For this reason, we are attaching a 25% probability that growth will increase to 2.5% or higher as inflation eases and the Fed pushes its policy rate to 3% more quickly than investors are pricing in. Should productivity improve, those gains would create the conditions for a quicker return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which would provide the ingredients for stronger growth, lower Fed rates and a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. The combination of a loosening labor market, slower pay growth and lower inflation will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December and potentially twice more next year, taking rates to 3.25%.
* [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [What We Do](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Our Firm](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). * [Careers](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). [Share](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026#). . . Goldman Sachs Research expects “sturdy” global economic growth in 2026, with some of the world’s biggest economies getting a boost from higher fiscal spending, declining policy rates, and a reduced tariff impact. Overall, [Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research) forecasts global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP to increase 2.9% in 2026—higher than the consensus estimate of 2.7%. Scroll down to see Goldman Sachs Research’s 2026 forecasts for some of the world’s [biggest economies](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). In Japan, Goldman Sachs Research expects steady growth to continue, with 0.6% real GDP growth this year. * [Life at GS](https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/life-at-goldman-sachs "Life at GS Link"). [Your Privacy Choices](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/forecasts-for-the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2026).
</>. [Skip to Main](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026#frbstl-content). [ FRED Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide.](http://fred.stlouisfed.org/). [ FRASER U.S. Financial, economic, and banking history.](http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/). [ ALFRED Vintages of economic data from specific dates in history.](http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/). [About the St. Louis Fed](https://www.stlouisfed.org/about-us). * [Page One Economics](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/page-one-economics). * [On the Economy Blog](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy). * [Teach Economics](https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/teach-economics-podcast-series). [Economic Research](https://www.stlouisfed.org/research). * [Our Economists](https://www.stlouisfed.org/research/economists). * [Careers in Research](https://www.stlouisfed.org/careers/yourcareer/opportunities/economic-research). * [On the Economy Blog](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy). * [Population, Employment & Housing Data](https://www.stlouisfed.org/research/regional-economy). [Economic Education](https://www.stlouisfed.org/education). * [Page One Economics®](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/page-one-economics). Gascon](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026#authorbox). [](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026). [](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026 "Share this page on X"). [](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026 "Share this page on LinkedIn"). [](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026 "Share this page via Email"). [](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026 "Print this page"). [Link Copied](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026 "Copy link to page"). Despite these challenges, the forecasts we described in a December 2024 [blog post](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/dec/professional-forecasters-performance-2025-economic-outlook) turned out to be quite accurate based on the data available today. Gascon, ldquo[Revisiting Professional Forecasters’ Past Performance and the Outlook for 2026](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026),rdquo _St. Louis Fed On the Economy_, Dec. 18, 2025. [Sign Up](https://www.stlouisfed.org/subscriptionspage). [About Us](https://www.stlouisfed.org/about-us).