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listicle
K
kenaninstitute.unc.edu
research
https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/commentary/five-economic-trends-to-watch-in-2026/
The challenges to forecasting are many and include major uncertainty about labor markets and inflation, the potential effects of artificial intelligence on short- and long-run economic trends, government shutdown-induced data gaps and resulting informational fog, and the continuing transformation of workplace culture. If inflation does not increase much and the labor market remains weak, the Fed may hold interest rates at or near neutral and let the forces of higher unemployment bring down inflation. * **AI raises productivity:** This development would mean a favorable growth and inflation scenario, as workers produce more with less. * **AI gains result in higher structural unemployment:** This case would also lead to counterintuitive policy, as the Fed would need to accommodate higher unemployment.If AI causes mass unemployment, cutting rates would not create jobs but instead raise inflation. The official measures of local GDP growth are released with a one-year lag, however, imposing a major challenge that we must work around to build out meaningful economic indicators.
A
atlanticcouncil.org
article
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/five-trends-to-watch-in-the-global…
Of course, much of the excitement around Chinese tech—and the confidence in its AI development—was driven this past year by the January 2025 release of the [DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/deepseek-poses-a-manhattan-project-sized-challenge-for-trump/). For China and the BRICS group of countries in particular, these cross-border payments platforms could also lend a hand in their de-dollarization strategies: new rails for trade, energy payments, and remittances that do not have to run through dollar-based correspondent banking. From Trump’s proposal to send two-thousand-dollar [checks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/stimulus-check-trump-tariffs-2000.html) to US citizens (thanks to tariff revenue) to Germany’s aim to ramp up defense spending, major economies across the G20 have big plans for additional stimulus in 2026. And on China, while the chart above shows International Monetary Fund and other official estimates for China’s GDP growth, some economists, including ones from Rhodium Group, [argue](https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chinas-Economy-Rightsizing-2025-Looking-Ahead-to-2026.pdf) that China’s real GDP growth could be as low as 2.5 percent for 2026, which would push China below the line displayed.
V
vistage.com
research
https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/2…
* [Leadership](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/business-leadership/). * [Customer Engagement](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/customer-engagement/). * [Business Operations](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/business-operations/). * [Financials](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/business-financials/). [Economic / Future Trends](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/business-financials/economic-trends/). * [Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=linkedin). * [Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=facebook). * [Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=x). Watch Marc Emmer explore [Business Trends for 2026 and Beyond](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20250813-business-trends-2026-and-beyond/) in this on-demand webinar.***. Part I: [Social and Workforce Trends for 2026 and Beyond](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251006-social-and-workforce-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/). Part II: [Technology Trends for 2026 and Beyond](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20261013-technology-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/). Part III: [Special Report: AI Trends for 2026 and Beyond](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251020-ai-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/). To compete, firms are increasing wages, enhancing benefits, and offering more flexibility (see our [Social and Workforce Trends](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251006-social-and-workforce-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/) post for more on hybrid work). * [Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=linkedin). * [Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=facebook). * [Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/business-financials/economic-trends/20251027-economic-trends-for-2026-and-beyond/?share=x). Category : [Economic / Future Trends](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/category/business-financials/economic-trends/). Tags: [Economic / Future Trends](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/tag/economic-future-trends/), [Strategic Planning](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/tag/strategic-planning/). [Learn More](https://www.vistage.com/research-center/author/marc-emmer/).
B
brookings.edu
research
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/economic-issues-to-watch-in-2026/
[Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/). [Trade flows have not fallen off a cliff](https://www.hamiltonproject.org/data/tracking-trade-amid-uncertain-and-changing-tariff-policies/); despite [nontrivial upward price pressure from tariffs](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34496), inflation has not materialized to the degree feared; recession concerns have eased; and the [dollar’s global role](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-tariffs-hurt-the-dollar/) [has proven resilient](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/top-market-takeaways/tmt-in-the-rear-view-how-did-our-2025-themes-pan-out#section-header). The GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, establishes a new regulatory framework for [payment stablecoins](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-stablecoins-and-how-are-they-regulated/), a privately offered digital payment asset recorded on a distributed ledger backed by U.S. currency or similarly liquid assets, that could be used as a substitute for cash or bank transaction accounts. While the GENIUS Act provides more certainty, financial regulators must now write rules that will determine if these [stablecoins can gain trust](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/essential-features-for-a-safe-and-trusted-payment-stablecoin/) and be used for purposes other than trading crypto-assets. At the same time, trade policy remains unsettled, with ongoing tariff actions and a [looming](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tax-policy-by-executive-order-the-unsettled-boundaries-of-ieepa/) Supreme Court case creating additional uncertainty for firms. [Federal Fiscal & Tax Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/federal-fiscal-tax-policy/) [Labor & Unemployment](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/) [Retirement](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/retirement-pensions-social-security/) [Social Safety Net](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-safety-net/) [U.S. Trade Policy](https://www.brookings.edu/topics/u-s-trade-policy/).
D
deloitte.com
article
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/u…
This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI “hyperscalers” have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by 4% in 2026—an acceleration from the second half of 2025. The federal deficit is expected to remain above 6% of GDP through 2030, exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline expectation.[6](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-6)The larger expected deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Companies are attempting to reclaim tariffs they paid after the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are impermissible.[11](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-11) Because we expect companies to recoup those funds, they are also likely to be more restrained in the near term when passing tariff costs on to consumers. The University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in five years was 3.2% in March, down from 4.1% one year earlier.[12](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-12). Stock markets have shown considerable strength, with the S&P 500 stock price continuing to grow at double-digit year-over-year rates at the time of this writing.[13](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-13)Optimism around the potential of AI has boosted earnings and raised expectations of future growth.
L
lsa.umich.edu
research
https://lsa.umich.edu/content/dam/econ-assets/Econdocs/RSQE%20PDFs/RSQE_US_Fo…
PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, climbs to the 2.8–3.0 percent range year over year in 2025Q3– 26Q3, as tariffs filter through the economy. Since the beginning of April, uncertainty surrounding tariff policy pushed markets to price in four or more cuts in 2025, but market expectations have recently returned to their late-March levels. With buyer hesitation in a slightly looser housing market, home price growth is expected to remain modest in 2025H2, averaging a 3.0 percent annualized pace, before reverting to its 4.0 percent long-run pace by 2027Q1. • PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, rebounds to the 2.8–3.0 percent range year over year in 2025Q3-26Q3 from about 2.5 percent recently, as tariffs filter through the economy. • Strong growth in goods imports fueled by tariff front-loading pushed the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio up to 4.6 percent in 2025Q1, exceeding the recent pandemic-driven peak in 2022Q1.
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
C
cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61738
Waning of the elevated uncertainty about trade policy provides modest support to economic growth next year as supply chains begin to adjust to