The Global Economic Outlook 2026–2028: 1H 2026 is live. Learn more about the forces shaping the growth outlook: bit.ly/4tMEzUv.
British Virgin Islands no data. China, People's Republic of 23.45 thousand. Korea, Republic of 2.1 thousand. Northern Mariana Islands no data. Saint-Pierre and Miquelon no data. Türkiye, Republic of 1.76 thousand. Turks and Caicos Islands no data. United Kingdom 4.67 thousand. United States 34.26 thousand. United States Virgin Islands no data. Wallis and Futuna Islands no data. Africa (Region) 3.75 thousand. Asia and Pacific 48.8 thousand. Australia and New Zealand 2.43 thousand. Central Asia and the Caucasus 2.64 thousand. East Asia 31.94 thousand. Eastern Europe 6.53 thousand. Middle East (Region) 4.39 thousand. North Africa 1.12 thousand. North America 39.28 thousand. South America 5.04 thousand. South Asia 6.71 thousand. Southeast Asia 5.02 thousand. Sub-Saharan Africa (Region) 2.63 thousand. Western Europe 27.33 thousand. Advanced economies 77.81 thousand. ASEAN-5 4.26 thousand. Emerging and Developing Asia 34.13 thousand. Emerging and Developing Europe 7.22 thousand. Emerging market and developing economies 58.22 thousand. Middle East and Central Asia 6.21 thousand. Other advanced economies 11.25 thousand. Sub-Saharan Africa 2.56 thousand.
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
* [How the IMF Supports the Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/about/how-the-imf-supports-the-global-economy). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Commodity Prices](https://www.imf.org/en/research/commodity-prices). * [Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/countries). * [A](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#A). * [B](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#B). * [C](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#C). * [E](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#E). * [G](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#G). * [H](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#H). * [I](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#I). * [J](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#J). * [K](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#K). * [M](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#M). * [N](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#N). * [S](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#S). * [T](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#T). * [U](https://www.imf.org/en/countries#U). * [IMF and Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/regions/europe). * [IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT)](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ResRep/CDOT-Region). * [IMF Regional Office for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/resrep/bal-region). * [IMF Regional Office in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/resrep/cam-region). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). * [Country Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/search#cf-type=COUNTRYREPS). Our adverse scenario assumes further disruption, leading to higher energy prices and inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions throughout the year. Actually, 2025 was a relatively strong year; and before the war began, global growth prospects being resilient and non‑oil commodity prices being strong and external financial conditions being supportive actually helped a lot of countries in the region. * [Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries).
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
[Skip to main content](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#main). [About PIIE](https://www.piie.com/about-piie "Learn more about PIIE, an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions."). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Globalization](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/globalization). * [Inequality](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inequality). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Labor](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/labor). * [Regions &Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). [View All](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). Real global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2025 to 3.0 percent in 2026 before picking up to 3.1 percent in 2027 (see figure below), according to analysis presented at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Spring 2026 [Global Economic Prospects](https://www.piie.com/events/2026/global-economic-prospects-spring-2026) event. [](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies](https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2026/war-uncertainty-slow-2026-growth-across-advanced-and-emerging-economies). ## [PIIE projects continued global economic growth in 2024 amid lingering inflation concerns](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/piie-projects-continued-global-economic-growth-2024-amid-lingering). * [Growth](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/growth). * [Inflation](https://www.piie.com/research/economic-issues/inflation). * [Topics](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Areas of Expertise](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Regions and Countries](https://www.piie.com/research/topics-regions). * [Research](https://www.piie.com/research). * [Publications](https://www.piie.com/research/publications). [Consent Preferences](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#). [More…](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/global-economy-slow-2026-and-outlook-clouded-war-other-uncertainties#addtoany "Show all").
The U.S. economy is expected to grow by around 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, signaling steady momentum despite global uncertainties. #IMF #