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I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outl…
. . * [Assumptions and Conventions](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/assumandconv.pdf). * [Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf). * [Foreword](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf). * [IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execboard.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [Download Table](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2026/april/english/weo-april-2026-projections-table.jpg). . [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Read Chapter 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf). * [Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx). * [Online Annex](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf). * [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities). * [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Read Chapter 2](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf). * [Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [Online Annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf). [](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Read Chapter 3](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf). * [Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx). * [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001). * [online annexes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf). ###### [Statistical Appendix:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). [Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/statsappendix.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix A:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). [Key Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableA.ashx). ###### [Statistical Appendix B:](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [Supplemental Global Economic Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2026/April/English/tableB.ashx). [](/en/publications/weo). [](/en/publications/gfsr). [](/en/publications/fm). [](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO).
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum…
The forecast for. 2026 is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point and that for 2027 is unchanged, compared with those in the January 2026 WEO
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsap…
The first section summarizes the assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for. 2026–27. The second section briefly describes the
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO
* [](https://www.facebook.com/International-Monetary-Fund-152292984850728/ "Follow IMF Facebook"). * [](https://www.imf.org/en/news/podcasts "IMF Podcasts"). * [](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index "Subscribe to IMF Emails"). * [](https://www.imf.org/en/live "IMF Live"). [](https://www.imf.org/en/Home)[](https://www.imf.org/en/Home). [Datasets](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/). [World Economic Outlook (April 2026)](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/). The WEO publication is available in full on the IMF's website, www.imf.org. For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the WEO database, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website, http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. [Current Report](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026)[Order print subscription](https://www.bookstore.imf.org/books/world-economic-outlook-april-2026)[Earlier Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Current Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO). [Analytical Groups](https://data.imf.org/en/Datasets/WEO/Groups-and-Aggregates-April-2026)[Regional Groups](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/region.htm). [](https://www.imf.org/en/home). * [About](https://www.imf.org/en/About). * [Research](https://www.imf.org/en/Research). * [Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries). * [Capacity Development](https://www.imf.org/en/Capacity-Development). * [News](https://www.imf.org/en/News). * [Events](https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/seminars/index.htm). * [Videos](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/index.aspx). * [Data](https://www.imf.org/en/Data). * [Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications). * [Social Media Hub](https://www.imf.org/external/social.htm). * [Annual Report](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/AREB). * [Copyright and Usage](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm). * [Privacy Policy](https://www.imf.org/external/privacy.htm). * [Contact Us](https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/contacts/contacts.aspx). * [Careers](https://www.imf.org/external/np/adm/rec/recruit.htm). * [Glossary](https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/glossary/index.asp). * [Scam Alert](https://www.imf.org/external/scams.htm "Scam Alert"). * [عربي](https://www.imf.org/ar/home "Arabic"). * [中文](https://www.imf.org/zh/home "Chinese"). * [Français](https://www.imf.org/fr/home "French"). * [日本語](https://www.imf.org/ja/home "Japanese"). * [Русский](https://www.imf.org/ru/home "Russian"). * [Español](https://www.imf.org/es/home "Spanish"). * [](https://www.facebook.com/International-Monetary-Fund-152292984850728/ "Follow IMF Facebook"). * [](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/podcast.aspx "IMF Podcasts"). * [](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index "Subscribe to IMF Emails").
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
* [About](https://www.imf.org/en/about). * [Fiscal Policies](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/fiscal-policies). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). * [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). * [Regional Economic Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo). [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr). [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [April 14, 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026). [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026). ###### [Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo). ###### [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026). ###### [Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026). ###### [Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025). ###### [Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025). ###### [A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025). ###### [Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025). ###### [World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024). ###### [The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/07/16/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024). ###### [Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024). ###### [World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024).
W
worldbank.org
article
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Inflation in low-income countries](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/021dbb36-16b7-4d2e-bcd5-5c05f2643591/download)[Jan. 2020, SF 2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). What is potential growth?[Jan. 2018, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Productivity and investment growth during reforms[Jan. 2018, Box 3.5](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2018.pdf). Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS[Jan. 2016, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016.pdf). Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Sectoral sources of productivity growth[Jan. 2020, Box 3.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Debt, financial crises, and productivity[Jan. 2020, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2020.pdf). Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future?[Jan. 2015, Box 1.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence[Jan. 2015, Box 1.2](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies[Jan. 2015, Chapter 3](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Fiscal policy in low-income countries[Jan. 2015, Box 3.1](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis[Jan. 2015, Box 3.4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2015.pdf). Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies[Jan. 2019, Chapter 4](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4aa0b654ecdbaf8302d5901aaada3fbf-0350012021/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2019.pdf).
C
cbo.gov
official
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036.