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D
desapublications.un.org
article
https://desapublications.un.org/sites/default/files/publications/2026-01/WESP…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Executive Summary 2026 II WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 2026 Executive summary Global economic outlook Steady but subdued growth amid elevated policy uncertainty The global economic outlook remains clouded by elevated macroeconomic uncertainties, shifting trade policies, and persistent fiscal challenges. Resilient trade growth in 2025, but moderation ahead Global trade remained resilient in 2025, expanding by an estimated 3.8 per cent despite heightened trade policy uncertainty and higher United States tariffs. Growing fiscal spending demands, but limited room to manoeuvre Fiscal conditions remain challenging across both developed and developing countries as policy uncertainty, subdued growth, and the lingering effects of recent shocks weigh on revenues and complicate consolidation efforts. Effective inflation management requires close coordination across policy domains and time horizons: monetary policy provides near-term stabilization; fiscal policy bridges the short and medium terms by supporting macroeconomic stability and protecting vulnerable households; and industrial and structural policies strengthen productive capacity and supply resilience, contributing to long-term price stability.
I
imf.org
article
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
The overall effect on growth in advanced economies of the conflict in the Middle East is modest, lowering growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 relative to the preconflict forecast, thanks to positive terms-of-trade effects in the United States and stronger growth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan, with a large negative effect expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euro area and the United Kingdom. Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict. In Nigeria , growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher goods WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR.
G
goldmansachs.com
article
https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/briefings/global-gdp-to-grow-2-8-p…
GDP is forecast to expand 4.8% as strong exports outweigh sluggish domestic demand. China's ability to produce increasingly higher quality goods at lower prices.
F
federalreserve.gov
official
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf
For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.” Page 10 of 17 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 18, 2026 Figure 4.B. Uncertainty and risks in projections of the unemployment rate Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors Actual Percent Unemployment rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Median of projections 70% confidence interval FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections Number of Participants Uncertainty about the unemployment rate 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Lower Broadly similar Higher March projections December projections Number of Participants Risks to the unemployment rate 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside March projections December projections Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
H
hartfordfunds.com
article
https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/WP873.pdf
That’s how you reconcile: • Elevated equity valuations and strong earnings-per-share (EPS)1 growth expectations, particularly in AI-related areas; • Tight credit spreads;2 • Long-term bond prices reflecting low inflation expectations (breakeven rates) despite pricing in further central-bank rate cuts to neutral or slightly below neutral. The rally in risk assets may persist until policymakers stop prioritizing growth and start trying to rein in inflation through tighter policy, or if the bond market penalizes the “inappropriate” policy response and forces a tightening via higher term premiums.6 Bond investors will, at a minimum, need to see data that exposes the inappropriateness of loose policy at this stage of the economic cycle, such as clear signs of labor-market recovery, and that may still take some time. The most likely scenario—inflationary growth—generally supports risk assets, though policymakers may eventually tighten policy or, if they don’t, markets could demand higher risk premiums.7 In this fast-changing environment, we think investors need to be vigilant: look for tell-tale signs of shifts in the cycle and consider actively adjust asset allocations to make the most of the significant opportunities that 2026 is likely to offer while mitigating the increased downside risks.
A
argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com
article
https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/8ba61fbd-b022-400b-82f5-7a2d93f3c31f.pdf
36 Euro area growth is expected to slow in early 2026 but accelerate thereafter, driven by strong consumption and improving exports, particularly in Germany and France Country and regional outlooks: Europe Euro area less Ireland y/y real GDP growth decomposition Q1 2023–Q4 2027F Europe y/y real GDP growth 2024–27F Source: Eurostat; EY analysis -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 EA GDP growth EA less Ireland GDP growth Private consumption Government consumption Investment Net exports Change in inventories 0.8% -0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 3.5% 1.1% 2.6% 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 3.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% 3.5% 0.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.0% 1.5% 3% 14% -2% 0% 1% 2% Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Ireland Poland Switzerland 13.8% -1.4% 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F H F 37 Inflation in the euro area is on track to stabilize near the ECB target as food prices and wage pressures ease, with country differences expected to narrow Country and regional outlooks: Europe Euro area y/y percentage change in headline CPI Q1 2020–Q4 2027F Europe y/y percentage change in headline CPI 2024–27F Source: Eurostat; EY analysis 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.0% 2.8% 3.3% 2.1% 3.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.0% 1.7% 2.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.8% 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 0.4% 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Ireland Poland Switzerland -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Headline inflation Core inflation Food Energy Core goods and services H F 38 With modest employment gains, wage growth near 3% and inflation around 2%, the ECB is likely to stay on hold, while cuts are expected in Poland Country and regional outlooks: Europe Key labor market indicators in the euro area Q1
O
openknowledge.worldbank.org
article
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/a9e24256-baf8-…
xix AE AGOA AI AIPI CAPB CGFS CPI EAP ECA EM7 EMBI EMDEs EMs EU FCS FDI FM FTSE FY GCC GDP GFC GNI HIPC IDA IEA IMF LAC LIC LNG LP MNA MSCI NRI ODA ODE OECD OPEC+ PMI PPP PVAR R&D RTA SAR Abbreviations advanced economy African Growth and Opportunity Act artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index cyclically adjusted primary balance Committee on the Global Financial System consumer price index East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye Emerging Markets Bond Index emerging market and developing economies emerging markets European Union fragile and conflict-affected situations foreign direct investment frontier markets Financial Times Stock Exchange fiscal year Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product global financial crisis gross national income heavily indebted poor countries International Development Association International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund Latin America and the Caribbean low-income country liquefied natural gas local projection Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Morgan Stanley Capital International non-resource-rich countries official development assistance other developing economies Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated oil producers purchasing managers’ index purchasing power parity panel vector autoregression research and development regional trade agreement South Asia xx SSA TFP UN USMCA VIX WAEMU WDI WTO Sub-Saharan Africa total factor productivity United Nations United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index West African Economic and Monetary Union World Development Indicators World Trade Organization CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL OUTLOOK CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JANUARY 2026 3 The global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
O
oecd.org
article
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2026/03/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-re…
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, sustained by robust technology-related