It predicts U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.2% in 2026, compared to 2.1% in 2025 - up two-tenths and half a percentage point from the June
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects projects global growth at 2.6% in 2026, edging up to 2.7% in 2027.
Global growth projected at 2.6% in 2026, with only a marginal increase to 2.7% in 2027, indicates relative macro stability at the aggregate
Frontier Market Economies: Promise, Perfor-mance, and Prospects (forthcoming) xix AE AGOA AI AIPI CAPB CGFS CPI EAP ECA EM7 EMBI EMDEs EMs EU FCS FDI FM FTSE FY GCC GDP GFC GNI HIPC IDA IEA IMF LAC LIC LNG LP MNA MSCI NRI ODA ODE OECD OPEC+ PMI PPP PVAR R&D RTA SAR Abbreviations advanced economy African Growth and Opportunity Act artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index cyclically adjusted primary balance Committee on the Global Financial System consumer price index East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye Emerging Markets Bond Index emerging market and developing economies emerging markets European Union fragile and conflict-affected situations foreign direct investment frontier markets Financial Times Stock Exchange fiscal year Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product global financial crisis gross national income heavily indebted poor countries International Development Association International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund Latin America and the Caribbean low-income country liquefied natural gas local projection Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Morgan Stanley Capital International non-resource-rich countries official development assistance other developing economies Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated oil producers purchasing managers’ index purchasing power parity panel vector autoregression research and development regional trade agreement South Asia xx SSA TFP UN USMCA VIX WAEMU WDI WTO Sub-Saharan Africa total factor productivity United Nations United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index West African Economic and Monetary Union World Development Indicators World Trade Organization CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL OUTLOOK CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JANUARY 2026 3 The global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters.
Global growth is projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027,
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The latest biannual regional economic updates highlight key macroeconomic trends and developments across Africa; East Asia and the Pacific; Europe and Central Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; and South Asia. East Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook. East Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook. The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region continues to grow faster than much of the rest of world, despite external shocks and global uncertainty, but growth is slowing in 2026. While certain tailored interventions—such as targeted public investments like special economic zones or skills development programs—can help address well-identified market failures throughout Europe and Central Asia, industrial policies should be used sparingly and temporarily, serving to complement the institutional reforms necessary to boost productivity, create jobs, and fostering business dynamism. The April 2026 edition of the semi-annual Economic Update, titled Challenges of Conflict and Industrial Policy for Development, examines how the conflict is affecting economies across the region, the channels through which these impacts are transmitted, and the potential for industrial policies to drive growth and job creation.